Wargaming the Electoral College

Obama has been pulling ahead in the polls for the last week or so. But in the state-by-state polls which actually matter, he’s lost a little ground.

A very small piece a ground — New Hampshire, to be exact. Rasmussen has taken NH out of the Leans Dem column and into the Toss-Up category. If you’re keeping score at home, that’s 247 for McCain, 255 for Obama, and 36 too close to call.

The way 270toWin does its math, with this scenario, Obama has a 71% chance of winning, McCain 17%, and a 12% chance of… a tie. But the odds go down to 35% for Obama and up to 38% for McCain if you color Virginia red — and I remain convinced that Virginia won’t go blue before 2012. The chances for a tie, however, more than double.

This might be a good time to pour yourself a drink.