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RealClearPolitics and Rasmussen have new numbers from five vital swing states:


(Click to embiggen to a readable size.)

Even if we assume a “weak” Bradley effect of 1-2%, McCain takes Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Florida is, as I’ve said since February, I think, out of reach for the Dems. Note, too, that this is the first time McCain has been ahead here in Colorado — and I think he can thank Sarah Palin (and the Left’s overreaction to her) for that.

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And as we learned yesterday, even New York is in playif we assume a “strong” Bradley Effect. But don’t concern yourself with the Empire State. On the far, far outside chance McCain wins there, we’re already looking at a 45+ state blowout.

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