All Over But the Terrorism?

A “tipping point” is where, after a lot of effort, everything starts to cascade your way and becomes much, much easier.

Think of pushing a bolder up a big hill, with a cliff on the other side. Or if you’re more warlike, remember the Afghan Campaign in the Fall of ’01.


For three weeks we bombed and bombed and nothing much seemed to happen. Then a single city fell, and within days the Taliban was on the run everywhere.

There are signs we might be reaching a tipping point in the Iraq War. From VOA News:

U.S. military officials say they now control Baghdad’s international airport but caution that more fighting lies ahead in the battle for the Iraqi capital.

U.S. armored units backed by air power have now consolidated control of Baghdad’s international airport less than 20 kilometers from the city’s center. U.S. officials say more than 300 Iraqi soldiers were killed in fighting in and around the airport.

And then this from the Washington Post:

U.S. Marines said Friday that the Nida division of the Iraqi Republican Guard had been defeated by U.S.-led forces pushing toward Baghdad from the southeast.

The division “has ceased to exist as an effective fighting force,” a U.S. military officer told Reuters correspondent Sean Maguire, traveling with the Marines.


Everywhere the Iraqis stand and fight, they are defeated — brutally, quickly, and without mercy. How much longer will their troops continue to follow orders, when they know that doing so means certain death?

Yes, Baath Party loyalists can keep taking hostages to “inspire” their troops to fight, but each day there are fewer loyalists needing more and more hostages. Each day there are fewer and fewer soldiers to “inspire.”

Tipping points come suddenly and, to our eyes, often unexpectedly. Keep your eyes open; there could be one coming quite soon.


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