It's Fun To Be Right

Austin Bay explains why Iran is almost a member of the Axis Of Not Quite So Evil As We First Thought.

But more importantly, why the current Iranian regime won’t last:

Most of the under-35s in Iran have had it with the religious tyrants. Iran’s young don’t remember Khomeini’s revolution. The Shah and the Pahlavi clan may or may not look good, but the Council of Guardians’ brutality is current news, the cultural straight-jacket of clerical puritanism chafes, and the mullahs’ hypocrisy and corruption are self-evident. In some ways, the thief in religious robes is even more repugnant than the usual greased-palm bureaucrat.

A chunk of over-35s no longer care for clerical rule, either. To describe the clerics’ economy as “stagnant” is a multi-decade understatement.

The division exerts a paralyzing effect on Iranian internal politics. The Islamist autocrats know they can’t hammer on the reformists too hard. If they do, the “fire will grow higher” — code language for the young taking to the streets.

If this argument sounds familiar, it’s because you read it here first, back in February.