Energy pundits are claiming that the Iran war, like COVID, has fundamentally changed the energy paradigm. IEA’s head, Fatih Birol, crystallized this view in a recent Guardian interview, declaring that the genie cannot go back in the bottle, oil markets are fundamentally transformed, “the vase is broken,” and “nobody regrets renewables.” He also advised the UK against bringing on additional oil, insisting that more exploration will not solve the current crisis.
The IEA, as in the COVID crisis, seems to be projecting rather than analyzing. The U.S. is experiencing higher prices at the pump but no shortages, and natural gas prices are actually falling. America is the most resilient economy in the face of energy volatility precisely because we are the world’s largest oil and gas producer, with nearly 14 mbd of oil production, 135 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas production and 18 mbd of refinery capacity. Yes, U.S. consumers feel global oil prices, but more money stays here, and more money is earned here as exports rise. That is energy dominance.
If the UK boosted its own oil and gas production, it would strengthen domestic energy security, lower natural gas prices, and directly reduce the cost of living for British families.
Advising the UK not to drill is the antithesis of what the IEA was created to do. Renewables, contrary to Birol’s commentary, are regrettable. UK power generation is in outright decline; it is chock-full of costly wind and solar (the latter particularly absurd in a country famous for rain), while natural gas and coal generation have collapsed. British electricity bills are among the highest in the world. London needs only look across the Channel to Germany, an industrial economy in disarray, with vast solar buildouts, vanishing coal power, and electricity prices near $0.45 per kWh.
Energy is more than turning the lights on; a nation must be able to build and make things to defend itself, and that requires energy-dense fuels, dispatchable power, and cheap, reliable process heat.
Remember: during COVID, Birol and the IEA publicly led “the calls to put clean energy at the heart of the economic response” (World Energy Outlook October 2020). This was not analysis or real intelligence; this was a political preference. The IEA followed this “position” with Net Zero 2050 projections demanding a 25 mbd cut to oil demand by 2030, and joined many others, including a few major oil companies, in claiming oil, gas, and coal had all conveniently peaked in 2019.
Someone should also remind the IEA that global coal consumption is at an all-time high, led by China, which burned 92 of the world’s 165 exajoules in 2024. China generates over 10,000 TWh of electricity, more than 5,800 TWh of it from coal alone, a figure exceeding the entire power generation of any other nation.
Traditional fuels should be embraced, not apologized for and rejected. Global oil and gas consumption keeps rising because these fuels are energy dense. The world consumes more than 100 mbd of oil, mostly for transportation, and no amount of wind and solar can substitute for it.
The UK and Europe are energy-starved by choice, not by geology. Norway shares the same offshore oilfields as Britain and chooses to develop them, preserving its security and prosperity. Europe is rich in natural resources. Refusing to produce your own oil and gas while hoping wind and solar fill the gap is not a strategy -it is an economic death sentence.
Prognosticating in the fog of war is difficult, but energy analysts and the oil and gas industry owe the public the truth to build a more resilient traditional fuel supply chain. The Iran war did not appear out of the blue; markets were complacent for months while tens of thousands of Iranians were being executed.
Energy dynamics will shift because of this war, but not the way the IEA thinks. Shifts will occur in how oil is transported and in the diversification of producers, providers, and fuels. More pipelines will route around the Strait of Hormuz. More coal will be consumed in Asia because of its physical security. And U.S. LNG exports will climb as nations like India hedge away from single-source dependence on Qatar. The lesson is simple: cheap, reliable, and energy-dense fuels are the foundation of prosperity and national defense. Governments ignoring energy realities in favor of politicized green targets do not save the planet; they impoverish their people and weaken their nations.
Editor's Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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