The PJ Tatler

CBS Poll Reveals Big Turnout Advantage for Republicans

CBS News released a new snapshot of the presidential race with the banner headline “Obama leads in Virginia, Wisconsin; tight in Colorado.” But behind that headline, if you drill down to page 5, lies a fact that probably ought to have led the story. Republicans have very large turnout edges in all three swing states.

Enthusiasm has grown for both candidates, but Republican enthusiasm has held steady and well above the Democrats’ level.

Forget how the networks over-weight their polls for a second, the question of who intends to turn out on election day is the best metric of where the candidates really are. And in that metric, Romney leads comfortably in all of the swing states that CBS polled.