APB from the #WIrecall: Gov. Scott Walker is looking strong to keep his seat.
A new Marquette Law School Poll shows that with three weeks to go until the recall election Governor Scott Walker has taken a six-percentage point lead over Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, 50-44 percent, among likely voters. Just three percent say they are undecided. In the previous poll, taken April 26-29, Walker held a one-percentage point lead among likely voters, 48-47. Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch holds a 47 to 41-percentage point lead over Professional Fire Fighters of Wisconsin president Mahlon Mitchell in that recall election, with 10 percent undecided.
The Democrats have run the man whom Walker defeated in 2010, and a union boss. Both are failing to catch fire.
The Marquette poll tracks well with the PPP/DKos poll that came out Tuesday and showed a five-point lead for Walker.
The Marquette Poll also shows strong intensity among Wisconsin’s Republican voters: 91 percent of them intend to vote in the June 5th recall. Voter identification is also tilting in the GOP’s favor.
In January there were two percentage points more Democrats than Republicans in the poll. That rose to eight points in February but has since declined to six points in March, three points in April and now just one point in May. When independents are asked if they feel closer to a party, the balance tips to a one-point Republican advantage in the May data.
A majority of voters see Gov. Walker as “decisive,” including 48% of Democrats who see him that way. His government union benefit reforms are running as strongly as he is.
Collective bargaining continues to divide the electorate by single digits. Voters prefer to keep the current collective bargaining law rather than return to what it was prior to last year, by a 50-43 percentage point margin.
In Wisconsin. The Badger State has truly become a swing state that the Republicans can win in June, and in November.