My answer: Yes, he can!
The only Democratic President to win a second term in recent memory was Bill Clinton (one could argue LBJ did it, but he didn’t serve a full first term, so the opposite argument could also be made). Regardless of whether you count LBJ or not, the Democrats have had well over 40 years with only one President being re-elected. Sit and let that sink in for a few moments… even with the Watergate scandal dragging the Republicans down, they have a 3-1 advantage in getting Presidents re-elected since Watergate.
Bill Clinton, the only one to break the recent Democratic single-term trend, did it by moving to the center. Bill was, and is, at heart is still a strong pragmatist, he saw that he couldn’t win a second term if he governed as a lefty ideologue. Barack Obama, however, will not–and maybe cannot–move to the center. He’s a hard-line lefty ideologue, and as such, he’s seriously out of step with our center-right nation. Thus, he’s very vulnerable to defeat this year.
I know what one of the first objections is going to be. “He’s got the media behind him!” So did Bill Clinton, and even with a very weak Republican candidate against him, and with the media’s help, he still only got 49.2% of the vote. The media can and will help Obama, but his own record of governing as a lefty will work against him.
Another possible objection is “look at the polls!” To be honest, taking the polls right now as definitive is like calling a baseball game during the first half of the first inning… the other team hasn’t even gotten up to bat yet! The GOP and our allies haven’t even swung at Obama yet, so right now the polls of GOP Candidate X vs. Obama are worthless.
So, yes, Obama can be defeated. This afternoon I’ll explain how. I gotta get to the day job now.