Connecticut isn’t a place that would go on anybody’s list of swing states but Barack Obama is in a statistical tie with Mitt Romney there, leading only 47-45.
Obama’s poor showing in Connecticut is mostly a function of his own unpopularity. Despite having won it by 23 points in 2008 his approval numbers are now under water at 48/49. That represents a 17 point net shift in the wrong direction since PPP last polled the state in March- at that time Obama’s approval was a positive 55/39 spread. The decline has come because he’s unpopular with independents (41/53) and also because an unusually high 20% of Democrats disapprove of the job he’s doing.
Romney’s favorability is 41/42, not great numbers but better than he is doing in most states. In the head to head with Obama he takes independents by 12 points at 48-36 and gets crossover support from 14% of Democrats while losing just 9% of the Republican vote.
The competitiveness in Connecticut is limited to Romney. Against the rest of the Republican field Obama leads by double digits- it’s 12 points against Rick Perry at 53-41, 13 against Ron Paul at 51-38, 16 against Newt Gingrich at 54-38, and 19 against Michele Bachmann at 55-36.
Charles Krauthammer is already using the “landslide” word to describe what may happen next year. I don’t think we’re there yet. The GOP doesn’t have a nominee, and a nominee that over performs in one region may under perform in another. But Obama’s weakness with independents seems to be growing, he is far weaker where Democrats are traditionally strong than he was in 2008, and voters are becoming more and more comfortable with the idea of replacing him.