Fun fact: Over 90% of financial “experts” and professional stock-pickers underperform the market. That’s mind-blowing, because there are a million-zillion different investment opportunities and financial theories — and these so-called experts really are experts! They went to school, track the trades, study the markets, and try their hardest to be successful investors. It’s their obsession.
Surely they can find SOMETHING worth investing in!
But over a 15-year period, 92.4% of large-cap managers, 95.1% of mid-cap managers, and 97.7% of small-cap managers can’t beat the market. They don’t just lose — they lose in a landslide.
You’d find similar odds at the roulette table. (Seriously.)
Yet one is considered “gambling” and the other is a legitimate, credentialed, science-driven discipline — full of charts, stats, and probabilities. One is a dice throw; the other an investment.
The line, it seems, between Las Vegas and Wall Street is as thin as a poker chip.
Financial experts use math and science. Most are working in good faith. They’re not faking their numbers (usually); that’s not the problem.
The problem is that they’re using math and science to derive demonstrably false conclusions.
Because their error rate is simply astronomical. Their salaries aren’t just a waste of money — following their advice will LOWER your ROI over 90% of the time!
Which is our segue to the world of polling.
Pollsters use math, science, charts, stats, and probabilities, too. They track the trades and study the markets. Most are working in good faith. (There are exceptions, of course.)
The problem is that they’re using math and science to derive demonstrably false conclusions.
Some publications try to mitigate the errors by publishing “polls of polls” and various aggregates. But that doesn’t work either: garbage in, garbage out.
It’d be like publishing an aggregate of all the different horoscopes to maximize accuracy. Doubling down on bad info doesn’t make the bad info good.
Yet each week, the media publishes new polling data, trumpeting the results as Gospel. We’re the unwashed masses; the media is Moses descending Sinai, bestowing its polling wisdom.
It triggers a media chain reaction: First, an outlet publishes the poll. Then the talking heads analyze the poll. Then the outlet gets the candidates’ reactions to the poll (and to the talking heads). Then the outlet interviews activists and surrogates. Rinse and repeat.
Media outlets can squeeze half a dozen “news” stories out of one fake poll!
This creates an echo chamber that reinforces the narrative. Each poll is a mini media campaign; each poll is a force multiplier.
In traditional PR, we used a 3-1 conversion rate to quantify “earned” media value: If a paid ad was worth $20,000, then a placed story was worth $60,000. (Since ads are less credible than news stories, people go to the bathroom during commercials, yada yada.) It’s called A.V.E. — advertising value equivalency — and there’s no consensus for its formulation.
But no matter how you tabulate the media value, when you add together ALL the false, fake, and completely misleading polling stories, it’s the greatest con job in political PR history. The A.V.E. is easily in the hundreds of millions.
Maybe in the billions.
And it almost always tilts the scales to the left. Over the last eight years, roughly 70% of August polls have overestimated Democratic support. Echelon Insights pollster Patrick Ruffini noted that 93% of polls in Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio between 2018 and 2024 have overstated support for the Democratic candidate.
Here’s Newsmax’s breakdown:
The historical misses were substantial in some races.
In Iowa in 2020, Democrat Theresa Greenfield led Republican Sen. Joni Ernst by an average 4.1 points at the comparable stage, according to Ruffini's analysis.
Ernst ultimately won by 6.6 points — a 10.7-point difference.
In Ohio in 2022, Democrat Tim Ryan held a 0.9-point polling advantage over Republican JD Vance, who ultimately won by 6.1 points.
Two years later, Democrat Sherrod Brown led Bernie Moreno by 0.4 points before Moreno won by 3.8 points.
Republicans also outperformed September polling in Iowa, Ohio, and Michigan during the 2024 election, CNN data analyst Harry Enten noted this week.
So 93% of polls overstated Democratic support. Which is roughly the same percentage as financial experts who lose to the market. Pretty weird, huh?
You’d have more fun — and eerily similar odds — at the roulette table!
It beckons the obvious question: Why does the media allow this?
(Which has an obvious answer: Because it helps the Democrats.)
But there’s also something deeper going on — and it’s an important insight about the mechanisms of media manipulation that the GOP would be wise to learn. Because, until we do, we’ll continue to be outmaneuvered by the Democrats.
They’re better at PR than we are. By a Pritzker-sized margin, too.
That means that we’ll continue to fight political battles with one hand tied behind our back.
The God-honest truth is that the media really doesn’t care if you lie to them — as long as the lie is believable and defensible. But the kicker is, the media decides what’s believable.
Spoiler alert: When just 3.4% of journalists identify as Republicans, they’re not gonna go out of their way to side with conservatives. That’s not their default setting; you’re pleading your case before a biased jury. Because 3.4% is absurdly low!
Once again, it’s eerily similar to the odds of roulette.
And that’s probably why Wedgewood, the “polling” company that now claims its bogus results were an “experimental project,” ran polls that favored far-left candidates: Wedgewood knew the media was WAY more likely to publish those results than pro-Republican ones.
So it turns out Wedgewood polls is just a bogus polling firm. https://t.co/gexGrSi8Vk
— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) October 20, 2026
Media manipulation matters. It gives you an edge. No, you can’t win a campaign with only PR — ‘cause if you could, the Dems would be undefeated — but it greases the wheels and straps a rocket to your back.
So how do Republicans fight fire with fire?
By following the three PR rules for lying to the media:
- The lie must be defensible. It doesn’t have to be truthful — but it better be plausible. (That’s why polling surveys and/or private companies self-reporting stats have such leeway: Unless you’re in the organization and tracking its methodology, you can’t really challenge the results.)
- The lie must benefit the media. Which gives the Dems an institutional edge: The media is already an ideological ally, so a pro-liberal lie is (usually) its own reward. But that doesn’t mean Republicans can’t play ball; it means we must be more creative. Other ways we can benefit the media: story exclusivity, interviews, insider access, prestige, notoriety, and (discreetly) sharing “confidential” info that makes journalists look good and (just as importantly) get lots of clicks. The more a lie benefits the media, the more likely it will run.
- The lie must tell a bigger, more interesting story. That’s what gives polling stories so much PR juice: It’s not just about the polls — it’s also about the American people, the future of government, and our national direction. The greater the stakes, the better the story — and the better the story, the more likely the media will run it without due diligence.
Is lying to the media wrong? Well, yeah: Lying is on a list of ten specific things God doesn’t want us to do.
But each industry has its norms, traditions, and conventions. If you’re a car salesman, it’s not really lying to insist on a higher price — that’s how the negotiation is supposed to work.
You go high, the customer goes low, and you meet in the middle.
And politics ain’t beanball. It’s a cutthroat, brutal, and unforgiving profession. Lies, falsehoods, and propaganda are the industry norms. We can either continue to play the game where 93% of polls exaggerate the Democrats’ popularity — or we can take steps to level the playing field.
If polling accuracy is unattainable, then the next-fairest outcome is results that are closer to 50-50.
Which should be the GOP’s goal in 2028. We can fund, field, interpret, and promote our polls, too. (And we can do so with the exact same “transparency” as the Democrats.)
Play. To. Win. The. Game.
No more half measures. No more moral victories. Play to win the game!
Otherwise, there’s always the roulette table.
(Similar odds, you know.)
One Last Thing: 2026 will reach a crescendo with the midterm elections. Nothing less than the future of our country teeters in the balance.
Never before have the political battle lines been so clearly defined. Blue wave or red wall, the 2026 midterms will transform our country.
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