If Democrats Aren't Panicking About Minnesota Right Now, They Should Be

For all the confidence Democrats are projecting heading into the midterms, they have a lot to worry about.

History alone should give them pause. Midterm polling has a long track record of missing badly, and plenty of races Democrats think they can win because the polls tell them so could easily flip red or stay red. The bigger headache for the Democrat Party, though, sits in the races it assumed were already locked up.

Minnesota should be setting off alarm bells in the Democrat Party right about now.

Despite Minnesota being a reliably blue state, Kamala Harris only carried it by five points in 2024, and she had its own governor, Tim Walz, on the ticket with her. That was supposed to be a home-field advantage.

And that was before the massive fraud scandal blew up in their faces.

On Tuesday, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted the Senate race from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, the Democrat nominee, still clings to a narrow edge, leading by four points in a Minnesota Star Tribune poll from earlier this month. That lead falls within the margin of error, which makes it a lead-in-name-only.

But it’s getting even worse for Flanagan.

On Wednesday, NBC News chief data analyst Steve Kornacki went on the Today show and made it quite clear that the GOP can win this election.

"There does seem to be a tide within the state that's working against Democrats," Kornacki said.

He pointed out that Republicans have "been trying for decades" to win that Senate seat, and he didn't need long to explain why the GOP finally likes its odds.

"What they think is working in their favor here is there's a state scandal there about Medicaid fraud," he explained. "The governor, Tim Walz, didn't run for reelection because of it — this is his lieutenant governor."

Steve Kornacki sees tide "working against" Democrat in the Minnesota Senate race “There does seem to be a tide within the state that’s working against Democrats” https://t.co/lJ8GtOE2cK

— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) October 22, 2026

Kornacki is hardly a GOP cheerleader, which makes his read all the more delicious. When the guy at the big board on a network morning show starts talking about a tide turning against Democrats in Minnesota, the one state in the union that never voted for Ronald Reagan, the party has a real problem on its hands.

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That problem is Flanagan's own record. Republican Michele Tafoya has hammered her for failing to stop a sprawling fraud and money laundering scheme that prosecutors believe drained at least $9 billion from the state. Let’s not forget, the fallout got bad enough that Walz abandoned his reelection bid earlier this year, as scrutiny of his handling of the mess mounted. He knew it would kill his chances and risk flipping the governorship to the GOP. Now, Flanagan, who served as his second in command the entire time, is the party’s nominee for the U.S. Senate, and that’s giving Tafoya a real shot.

And trust me, Tafoya is making sure voters don’t forget that Flanagan was part of the problem. When Flanagan turned the conversation to lost access to programs during a debate last week, Tafoya pounced.

"Listen, it is rich to hear my opponent talk about lost access to programs when under her watch, as second in command of this state, Minnesota saw billions and billions and billions of fraud dollars walk out the door to fraudsters while Medicaid was gutted," Tafoya said.

Flanagan's answer was hardly a profile in courage.

"The governor said that more should have been done and more should have been done sooner, and I agree with him," Flanagan said in response. "But I supported the independent office of inspector general. I also supported harsher penalties."

That’s… a terrible defense.

She concedes the response came too late, then points to an inspector general's office and some tougher penalties, as if they make up for billions in stolen taxpayer money. Voters who watched that cash vanish on her watch won't find a list of things she supported after the damage was done to be impressive. They want to know why it wasn’t caught in the first place, and the signs have long pointed to Democrat leaders simply letting it happen because they risked losing support from the Somali community.

Democrats can keep projecting confidence all they want, but if Minnesota is competitive this year, trust me, they’ve got a lot of problems.

Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.

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