In Newtonian physics, for every action, there’s an equal and opposite reaction. It’s the Third Law of Motion, and there’s no shortage of real-life examples. In fact, it seems to be a fundamental feature of our observable, everyday universe.
Its political corollary is far less scientific and much more Machiavellian: For every action, there’s going to be a reaction — but it’s not always proportional, nor is it equal. Sometimes, it’s not an eye for an eye; when you antagonize the wrong party, the cost could be a very big pile of broken skulls.
This makes sense: If geopolitics was purely based on proportionality, there’d never be any wars because nobody would ever escalate. The world would be a happier, more predictable place!
Very clearly, that’s not what’s going on.
In the free market, the guiding principle is caveat emptor: Let the buyer beware. It’s why the burden is typically on the consumer to do his due diligence and enter into an agreement with both eyes open. Here, too, we encounter its political corollary: Caveat rex. Let the king beware!
Empires are won and lost on the whims of its leaders. Tread carefully, lest your kingdom is vanquished.
This brings us to the lame-duck Biden-Harris administration and its recent decision to allow Ukraine to fire long-range, American-supplied missiles at targets in undisputed Russian territory. The timing of the decision — less than two weeks after Trump’s landslide electoral victory — seems designed to box in the incoming Republican administration, making disengagement significantly more challenging.
Russia, of course, is still a nuclear-armed power. With Putin’s go-ahead, the Russian Bear could transform our planet into a hellish fireball. And there’s absolutely no guarantee that his next action will be proportional or equal! This is an extraordinarily dangerous game of geopolitical chicken.
Today, we learned the Russian response to the Biden-Harris escalation: Putin has just lowered the threshold for the deployment of nuclear weapons.
A Kremlin spokesman announced, “The Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in case of aggression with the use of conventional weapons against it.”
The spokesman also confirmed that the Biden-Harris-approved missile strikes “would be consistent with the updated doctrine and could trigger Russia’s nuclear response.”
I’d like to reiterate that last point, because it’s kinda-sorta-vaguely important: Because of this sudden Biden-Harris policy change, Russia has given notice that it reserves the right to respond ASAP with nuclear weapons.
This is the closest the world has come to nuclear Armageddon since the Cuban Missile Crisis, and the mainstream media is barely covering the story!
Naturally, there’s a chance Putin is bluffing. Dictators and despots bluff all the time.
But there’s also a chance he’s NOT bluffing. If so, the cost of misreading Putin would literally be the end of human civilization.
Sadly, I’m not being hyperbolic.
The Russian-Ukrainian war is still raging. It’s unknown which side will prevail. Yes, the Russian military has horrendously underperformed so far — but if you follow Russian history, you recognize that this is standard Russian behavior: The first year of almost all their wars is a disastrous display of incompetence and ineptitude!
But then they switch around their military leaders and throw an endless supply of bodies at the problem, and eventually they either outlast the other side or the Russian regime collapses. That’s been the Russian norm for centuries.
Like Stalin noted, “Quantity is a quality of its own.”
The Russian population is about 145 million. Ukraine’s is about 34 million. So not only must Ukraine outfight, outgain, and outlast Mother Russia — but any battle with fewer than 11 or 12 dead Russians for every dead Ukrainian is a net loss for Ukraine. It just doesn’t have the population reserves of its opponent.
Presumably, as long as Russia believes it will prevail, it will avoid using nukes. (Hey, the most likely nuclear target would be somewhere in Ukraine, and there’s no point nuking what you’re eventually going to own.) And with this large of a population imbalance, time is still on Russia’s side.
Even if it takes another decade. Or two.
But if Putin determines that he can no longer win via conventional means, he’ll pursue nonconventional means. It’d be stupid to assume otherwise: If you give Putin a choice between detonating a nuclear weapon or being deposed, jailed, and executed, he’ll almost certainly choose the nuke.
Dictators tend to err on the side of self-preservation.
So now the world is teetering toward a nuclear apocalypse. We’re just one miscalculation away — amidst a raging hot war in Europe, no less! — from the end of the world.
Is this really in the best interest of the American people?
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