Just as 9/11 changed America, October 7 changed Israel. We’re only starting to realize how much.
For years, the Israelis were trapped in the “proportionate” political game: Some terrorist knucklehead hits them over here, so you hit ‘em back over there. A few months later, they do it again. An endless, eternal, never-ending game of tit-for-tat.
And we all got used to it! This was how we assumed the Middle East always negotiated: Everyone rattles their sabers, talks a big game, and tries to get in the last word, but at the end of the day, nothing really changes.
After October 7, Israel stopped playing the “proportionate” game. It turns out that disproportionate responses work a helluva lot better.
We didn’t realize it right away. Invading the Gaza Strip to pursue the Hamas barbarians who kidnapped your women and children was a no-brainer. So the first part of their military response was entirely as expected.
What wasn’t expected was that the Israelis were actually planning to raze the entire antisemitic cesspool in the region to the ground — and now, Iran’s next on their hit list.
It caught us by surprise because it’s contrary to everything the Biden-Harris administration told us. (Silly us.) Their entire (failed) foreign policy was to limit Israel’s response and “contain” the conflict.
Kamala Harris may feign amnesia today, but yesterday’s headlines told the story:
- Washington Post: Biden administration scrambles to deter wider Mideast conflict
- The New York Times: Biden and Aides Advise Israel to Avoid Widening War With Hezbollah Strike
- Washington Post: Israel’s talk of expanding war to Lebanon alarms U.S.
- Axios: Biden officials warn Israel “limited war” with Lebanon may draw Iran to intervene
- Wall Street Journal: Biden Convinced Netanyahu to Halt a Pre-Emptive Strike Against Hezbollah
Once again, when it comes to foreign policy, the Biden-Harris approach was absolutely, exactly, 100% wrong. And when you’re wrong this many times in a row, there’s got to be a blind spot in your worldview. (It’s absurd: Just going by the laws of probability, a monkey throwing darts at a board would have better results than Biden-Harris.)
So the Israelis ignored the White House and handled things their own way: They tore through Hamas, flooded its tunnel system, wiped out its military, and killed its leader. Then, they pulled off the intelligence coup of the century by rigging thousands of Hezbollah pagers — and suddenly made ‘em go BOOM.
But that wasn’t the end of it. Just as we predicted, Israel was tracking who was visiting those hospital rooms after that pager-rager. From my article (Sept. 18, 2024):
The novelty and creativity of how Israel made Hezbollah’s pagers go boom so swept away the mainstream media that they missed the larger story: Mossad was certainly aware that placing these pagers in the hands of their enemies would provide a treasure trove of actionable intelligence. Mossad is many things, but they’re not stupid. So they almost certainly embedded tracking devices in all those pagers.
This means the Israelis have been tracking Hezbollah’s “secret” leadership for months — everywhere they go, everyone they meet, everybody in their network.
Furthermore, with Lebanon’s close geographic proximity to Israel, Mossad undoubtedly has spies in Lebanese hospitals. So even if the actual beepers were track-proof, an eyewitness account of who’s hobbling to the emergency room with their balls blown off would tell Israeli intelligence all they needed to know.
And not to mention, all the visitors of Hezbollah’s injured VIPs: They’ll be dropping by the hospital as well. I’m sure that’s going to be very interesting, too. Lots of new data points to glean.
Detonating Hezbollah’s pagers was the first step of an orchestrated, elaborate intelligence operation that forced its underground network into the open, exposed its leadership, and left it easy pickings for the Israelis.
Clearly, Israel’s not screwing around anymore. It’s a new day in the Holy Land. Underestimate it again at your own peril.
And this takes us to Israel’s long-awaited military response to Iran. Most of the media is assuming that it’s now over and done with — yet another tit-for-tat in the Middle East. “Here we go again…”
But I think most of the media is wrong.
Iran strike status update via @ynetalerts & @N12News:
— Israel Radar (@IsraelRadar_com) October 27, 2024
1. All four of Iran’s S-300 air defense systems destroyed in IDF strike, Israeli & Iranian sources tell NY Times; Iranian officials express deep concern as vital energy & economic sites are now fully exposed to future attacks.…
Those were Iran’s most advanced — and most expensive — air defense systems. (Estimated cost: $150 to $300 million each, so four blown-up systems could be a $1.2 billion setback.) But the issue here isn’t money. It’s vulnerability.
Without those systems, Iran is suddenly vulnerable to threats from the Turkic States, particularly Azerbaijan, as well as Kurdish separatists who have access to drone technology. It can no longer defend itself from the skies.
Seems to me that blowing up Iran’s air defense system would be the first logical move before some kind of a broader campaign.
Maybe it’ll come from the outside; maybe not. There could also be underground networks within Iran that oppose the Mullahs. I’d be kind of surprised if there weren’t.
Therefore, one of two things must be true: Either Biden-Harris finally strong-armed the Jewish State into heeding their foreign policy, and Israel’s air assault on Iran is just another tit-for-tat in the endless game of “proportionality" ...or it’s not.
If it’s not, then we’re right on the cusp of the second chess piece making a move. And it’s gonna be a doozy.
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