“The Sand People are easily startled,” Obi-Wan Kenobi explained to young Luke Skywalker. The wise Jedi Master (who really should’ve been a pal and warned Luke not to kiss his sister) was referencing the Tusken Raiders of Tatooine, but he could’ve also been speaking about the modern-day Democratic Party: They’re easily startled, too.
It’s why they removed Joe Biden from the ticket.
There is absolutely NO scenario were a bad debate just a few months before an election would lead the GOP to pull a coup and depose a sitting president. No way, no how — not ever!
But then again, Republicans and Democrats think differently.
When it comes to planning and executing political tactics, the greatest weakness Republicans have is that we don’t think like Democrats. (And the exact opposite is also true.) We expect the opposition to make similar calculations and/or risk-reward calculations. When they don’t, our imagination goes into overdrive, leading to absolutely bizarre conspiracy theories. (If you don’t believe me, go watch five minutes of MSNBC. That’ll give you a good take of the liberal side.)
If men are from Mars and women from Venus, then Republicans and Democrats must live on opposite sides of the universe.
Conservatism is directly tied to our past — to American traditions — and as such, Republicans value concepts like patriotism, culture, and heeding institutional norms. To a large degree, it’s politically limiting because it necessarily restricts our movement: There are certain behaviors that a traditional conservative just wouldn’t traffic in.
One of the things that made Trump so unique was that he was the first mainstream Republican in many, many decades to thumb his nose at these restrictions and do whatever the hell he wants. We hadn’t seen anything like that in our lifetimes.
But Democrats aren’t burdened by these ideological restrictions.
The Democratic Party is less about fighting for specific ideas, and more about using government to benefit key constituencies: women, minorities, immigrants, environmentalists, etc. It’s a coalition party with many, many groups and many, many opposing objectives — a union worker in Pennsylvania has very little in common with an environmentalist in San Francisco, for example — but they’ve both decided that the Democratic Party will be their vehicle-of-choice to extract a bigger piece of the pie.
If you’re a Republican, you value government as a means to advance the ideas and principles you care about. If you’re a Democrat, the purpose of government is to advance constituencies (people), not ideas: All that matters is whose hog gets slaughtered... and who gets the pork.
And that’s how we know Kamala Harris truly, legitimately believes she’s winning right now: They haven’t taken any risks since giving her the nomination.
Morton Blackwell is a legend in the conservative movement, but most people probably haven’t heard of him. Decades ago, he founded a conservative training center called the Leadership Institute that’s now trained over 161,000 conservatives, including sitting congressmen, sitting senators, a past vice president, and activists like James O’Keefe and Grover Norquist (and, uh, me). One of Blackwell’s most popular essays is his Laws of the Public Policy Process.
Rule #38: “In politics, nothing moves unless it’s pushed.”
As long as Kamala Harris believes she’s winning, she’s not going to take any risks. No big gambles, no bold moves.
Why?
Because Democrats are like the Sand People: They’re easily startled. When they’re in a panic, believe me, you’ll know right away:
- Kamala Harris will suddenly open up and do a ton of interviews — including hostile interviews.
- The mainstream media will focus extensively on how rotten and awful the American voters are, and the narrative will be planted to blame racism/sexism on Kamala’s defeat.
- Tim Walz will be taken from the mothballs and placed anywhere a camera’s pointing.
- Bold new legislation (that benefits whatever demo is slipping away) will be announced ASAP by the Democrats.
We’re not there yet. Right now, the Democrats truly, honestly believe they’re winning. They’re not “pushing” anything and are content with the status quo.
This doesn’t mean they’re actually winning, of course. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was completely convinced she was going to win, too. But it does reveal how they’ve internally assessed the campaign’s trajectory. Lately, there’s been way too much chatter from conservatives that Trump is on cruise control, headed for an easy victory.
These conservatives might ultimately be right, but it’s NOT tracking with the Democrats’ internal polling. Because, when they REALLY think they’re losing, you’ll 100% know. It’ll be obvious.
Even if you’re not a Jedi Master.
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