Political campaigns are all about trajectory. There’s point A and point B: Where you are today, and where you need to be in November. Your campaign plan bridges the gaps between those two points. Nothing more, nothing less.
A campaign plan is a roadmap.
But it’s a roadmap of wet, muddy terrain that’s constantly changing. Sometimes, new obstacles appear out of nowhere. And when the terrain changes, so must your roadmap — or you’ll get stuck.
Since Biden dropped out, Donald Trump has been following the wrong roadmap and now he’s stuck in the wrong direction.
There’s no excuse for it: Trump holds himself to a high standard, so that’s the same standard I’ll use. Yes, Biden suddenly quitting was unprecedented (un-presidented?), but it was certainly foreseeable. Joe Biden is not a healthy man. And the most obvious candidate to replace him has always been Kamala Harris. They had four years to prepare for her.
Four years is an awfully long time!
But they weren’t ready. And now they’ve squandered the opportunity to frame her identity and define her brand. They’re simply too late. Because they stayed silent for so long, Harris successfully reintroduced herself to the American people. The past three weeks was her media blitzkrieg — a rapid-fire, air, sea, and land assault with all PR weapons firing at once.
The American people were shocked and awed. Her PR blitz… worked.
It’s always easier to define someone before his or her identity is established: A blank canvas shows every detail. There’s unlimited real estate. You can paint new images wherever you want.
With all the money the RNC/Trump had already raised, it was clearly within their budget to launch an ad campaign the moment Harris supplanted Biden. They could’ve painted a picture of her that was strikingly different from what was presented. Yet they declined.
That’s the single biggest campaign mistake Trump has made (so far).
Advertisements tend to be more effective later in the campaign — there’s usually a strong correlation between an ad’s impact and proximity to voting. But these are unusual times, and when there’s a fresh opportunity to define your opponent, it’s simply PR malpractice to sit on your hands.
Instead, Kamala Harris had free range to define herself. And guess what: She says she’s Barack Obama, George Washington, and Abraham Lincoln all rolled into one. Kamala Harris is a really big fan of Kamala Harris.
So’s the entire media.
Okay, enough bellyaching about woulda-coulda-shoulda. It’s in the past — what’s done is done. Let’s jump to the only relevant question left: What the hell do we do about it?!
Trump’s advisors, it seems, are whispering in his (good) ear to tone down the vitriol and be less abrasive. Be nice; be extra-respectful; don’t take risks. How else could you explain his critique of his opponent’s Time magazine cover: “She looks like the most beautiful actress ever to live. Actually, she looked very much like a great first lady, Melania. She didn’t look like Kamala. But of course, she’s a beautiful woman, so we’ll leave it at that, right?”
Look, I understand the theory behind moderating Trump’s tongue: When a man runs against a woman, it’s true; the optics are different. Plus, the New York Times claimed Trump’s been calling Kamala a “bitch” behind closed doors; I’m sure that’s heightened their sensitivity to allegations of misogyny.
So I’m not saying the theory is stupid. But it’s NOT the solution to Trump’s current campaign problem:
Trump needs to change the trajectory ASAP. That’s his problem! If the current trajectory holds, Trump will lose. Period. There’s no spinning it, no escaping it.
Fortunately, this particular problem is tailormade for the Mighty Orange Wrecking Ball: Trump needs to unleash Trump.
And to do so at his Trumpiest.
All the fury. All the intensity. All the fire.
Ready, aim... tweet!
There’s never been anyone better at instantly changing a narrative. Trump’s the grandmaster of chaos. With just a throwaway line in a speech — or a 2:00 a.m. tweet — Trump’s ability to hijack a news cycle is unmatched in modern politics.
For Trump to win, the news cycle needs to be disrupted. Constantly.
Plus, the timing is right. Eventually, all honeymoons must come to an end, and the media’s love affair with Kamala Harris is soooo over the top — so absurdly hyperbolic and disconnected from reality — it’s absolutely fair game to poke it with a needle.
Or a sledgehammer.
Since Biden dropped out, Kamala Harris has been working off a script. That’s her strength: reciting someone else’s material. She’s quite good at it; underestimate her at your own peril.
Kamala’s weakness is that she can’t do improv. She’s an absolute disaster without lines being fed to her.
So, force her to scrap her script. That’s how Trump wins.
Take off the gloves. Disrupt the news cycle. Change the narrative. Over and over.
Let Trump be Trump — humor, snark, warts, nastiness, and all.
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