No Guac for You: Security Alert Squeezes Mexican Avocado Pipeline to the U.S.

If you love guacamole or avocado toast, you may want to pay attention to this. 

According to Mexico’s avocado producers and packers association (APEAM), the United States has "suspended avocado export inspections in Mexico’s Michoacán state after a security alert on Wednesday, potentially delaying shipments from the country’s top producing region ‌to its biggest market."  

APEAM reports that "USDA regulatory personnel who verify compliance with export requirements at authorized packinghouses" are only allowed to process avocados that were received on Tuesday in the presence of USDA officials. Wednesday's fruit could be unloaded but not processed or shipped. 

It's not clear how long the disruption will last, but it could have an impact on our food chain. According to Reuters: 

Mexico is on track to ship roughly 1.2 million metric tons of avocados to the United States in 2026, as strong demand from its top export market helps drive total Mexican avocado exports to a record 1.31 million metric tons, according to USDA data.

The United States accounts for nearly 90% of Mexico’s ‌avocado ⁠exports by volume, making it by far the country’s largest foreign market.

Michoacán Governor Alfredo Ramírez Bedolla confirmed that state officials were in contact with the United States Embassy and both Mexican and U.S. security authorities were working to restore operations as soon as possible. He called it a "preventative step by the United States to protect its employees." 

At the same time, the United States Embassy in Mexico issued a "Security Alert," which states: "Due to a threat against American interests, U.S. government activities in Michoacan State have been suspended as of August 5.  Reminder that the U.S. travel advisory designates Michoacan as a Level 4 'Do Not Travel' area." 

While we don't know what the actual threat is, Michoacán, which is located in Western Mexico, along the Pacific Ocean, is one of the country's most dangerous states due to pervasive organized crime, turf wars, kidnapping, targeted violence, and frequent standoffs between the cartels and security forces. 

Cártel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) and various rival groups have a strong presence in the region. They often clash over things like extortion rackets, drug routes, and, well, control of lucrative industries like avocado production. They do this by making farmers pay protection fees or taking a cut of their profits, seizing land, and much more. As a matter of fact, this led to pauses in avocado shipments to the U.S. in 2022 and 2024. 

While I can't confirm any correlation, I do find the timing of this security alert interesting. On Wednesday, the Donald Trump Administration announced that it is doubling down on CJNG. 

The Department of Justice unsealed indictments against five high-ranking CJNG leaders. 

Let there be no mistake: We will eliminate the narco-terrorist organizations threatening our country and the American people. We are offering rewards totaling over $100 MILLION for info leading to the arrests and/or convictions of CJNG leaders and associates.… pic.twitter.com/l8Sa7J8dxO

— US Dept of State INL (@StateINL) August 5, 2026

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the State Department "is offering rewards totaling over $100 million for information leading to the arrests and/or convictions of their leaders and associates," as well as restricting and revoking visas. 

The United States is hunting down, dismantling, and destroying Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación. @StateDept is offering rewards totaling over $100 million for information leading to the arrests and/or convictions of their leaders and associates. We are also imposing visa…

— Secretary Marco Rubio (@SecRubio) August 5, 2026

It could be a coincidence, but the timing is awfully suspect. We'll see what happens. 

Editor’s Note: Thanks to President Trump and his administration’s bold leadership, we are respected on the world stage, and our enemies are being put on notice.

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