I've been working on something about this for a couple of weeks, but other stories and life events have pulled me away from it. I tell you that because my original intro that I wrote last week said something about how the mainstream media isn't covering Venezuela properly at the moment. It still isn't, but it's beginning to, which is just another sign that we're getting closer to the edge of something big, most likely the end of the Nicolás Maduro regime and years of Chavista dictatorship in a country that is down on its knees. I think the real question now is not if, but when, and how it will all go down. Will it be Donald Trump's next major achievement on the world stage?
Recent Escalation
Maduro is not the legitimate president of Venezuela. That's been United States policy — and, well, basic common-sense knowledge — for quite a while, but over the last five or six weeks, the Trump administration has used stronger language and taken bolder actions to make that point. I imagine Secretary of State Marco Rubio has a lot do with that. A firm believer in a strong Western Hemisphere, he's been going after the Maduro regime for years, both for its humanitarian atrocities and its threat to our national security.
Rather than calling Maduro's fake government a "regime," he's doubled down in recent interviews, calling it a "criminal enterprise," and he refers to Maduro himself as a "narco-terrorist" more often than not these days.
Earlier this month, the State Department, along with the Department of Justice, announced a $50 million reward for Maduro for "violating U.S. narcotics laws." Maduro is the leader of Cartel de los Soles, which is responsible for trafficking drugs into the U.S. In July, the Trump administration also designated Cartel de los Soles as Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT) organization.
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about how Rubio said during a radio interview that "At some point we’ve got to say we’re going to take this people on, and we’ve got to take them on with more than just rewards, by the way." At the time, I wasn't sure exactly what he meant by that, but within those couple of weeks, a few other things have happened.
Related: Rubio on Maduro: 'At Some Point... We're Going To Take These People On'
Growing U.S. Military Presence
One mainstream media headline you might have noticed over the last week or so is that the U.S. has strengthened its military presence in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea near Venezuela's coast. U.S. officials say it's merely the Trump administration taking stronger actions against drug cartels in general, but it's kind of obvious that this is about much more than that. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt actually spoke out about that during her Thursday press briefing.
A reporter asked, "The military deployment that President Trump has sent to the Caribbean Sea close to the shores with Venezuela is massive. It's much more that is needed to simply counter narcotics operations. Is President Trump considering launching military strikes to military installments or facilities in Venezuelan soil?"
Here's how she responded:
I won't get ahead of the president with respect to any military action or questions about that ever, but what I will tell you is that many Caribbean nations and many nations in the region have applauded the administration's counter-drug operations and efforts, and the President is prepared to use every element of American power to stop drugs from flooding into our country and to bring those responsible to justice.
And as I've said from this podium before, the Maduro regime is not the legitimate government of Venezuela. It is a narco-terror cartel. Maduro is not a legitimate president. He is a fugitive head of this drug cartel. He has been indicted in the United States for trafficking drugs into our country, and it is the utmost responsibility of this president and this administration to prevent the illicit flow of drugs into our country and to protect citizens from those deadly poisons.
"As a Member of the Armed Services Committee, I can confirm this is the largest military presence we have ever had off the coast of Venezuela," Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-Fla.), an outspoken supporter of ridding the world of Maduro, posted on X this week.
🚨As a Member of the Armed Services Comittee, I can confirm this is the largest military presence we have ever had off the coast of #Venezuela.
— Rep. Carlos A. Gimenez (@RepCarlos) August 26, 2025
Nicolas Maduro leads the criminal Cartel de los Soles & is directly responsible for flooding America with lethal drugs. His time is up! https://t.co/YK9GECUgYw
On Thursday, Reuters reported that "seven U.S. warships, along with one nuclear-powered fast attack submarine, were either in the region or were expected to be there in the coming week." Gimenez also posted this on X:
Dictator Nicolas Maduro hasn’t been sleeping lately.
— Rep. Carlos A. Gimenez (@RepCarlos) August 26, 2025
No creo que el dictador Nicolás Maduro esté durmiendo mucho que digamos. #SOSVenezuela pic.twitter.com/WDoHsBIkkm
While it's normal for the U.S. military to patrol the Southern Caribbean Sea, as the congressman said, this is unprecedented. Approximately 4,000 to 4,500 servicemembers are reportedly involved with the operation, including 2,200 combat-ready Marines. The operation also includes surveillance through the use of P-8 maritime patrol aircraft. Last month, Trump gave the Pentagon permission to use military force against cartels if necessary.
Whether all of this is simply meant to make Maduro nervous or will escalate into something stronger remains to be seen. I've actually reached out to Gimenez for comment but haven't received a response yet (if I eventually do, I'll add it here or use it for a future article). My personal opinion is that it could lead to military action on the ground in Venezuela, but it would be something precise and contained — more like what we saw in Iran rather than an all-out war. Our peace president doesn't start wars; he ends them.
International Pressure
Here's something else that isn't making a lot of MSM headlines: Many of our allies in the region have joined us in ramping up this pressure on Maduro and his thugs. Last week, Ecuador and Paraguay followed the United States by designating Cartel de los Soles a terrorist group:
Paraguay declara al “Cártel de los Soles” como grupo terrorista internacional.
— Presidencia Paraguay (@PresidenciaPy) August 22, 2025
Con este decreto promulgado por el presidente Santiago Peña, el Gobierno reafirma su compromiso en la lucha regional contra el crimen organizado y el narcotráfico transnacional. pic.twitter.com/9pbfrWnuKA
More recently, Argentina made the same declaration.
DEL LADO CORRECTO DE LA VIDA...
— Javier Milei (@JMilei) August 26, 2025
Fin. https://t.co/fiPODbejCG
Even Guyana, a country that probably has the most to lose in this situation, has spoken out publicly, thanking regional allies for for cracking down on Maduro and Cartel de los Soles, even though it hasn't made any sort of formal designation of terrorism.
#Guyana pic.twitter.com/si4HTb8CEB
— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) August 22, 2025
Other South American allies have distanced themselves from the Maduro regime over the last year or two.
Palpable Tension Online
While this isn't a scientific study or proof of anything concrete, I have noticed a growing excitement on social media. People like Congressman Gimenez and Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado have ramped up their language in recent weeks, and I don't think that's a coincidence. Latin American reporters, everyday people who once lived in Venezuela, and others with ties to the region also present a growing sense of urgency and optimism about what's happening. It fills my own personal X timeline daily.
Related: Venezuelan Opposition Leader Has a Warning for New York
On Thursday, Machado posted this video online about the "Venezuela that is coming." She added, "Here you can see, in just 4 minutes, the dream of millions of citizens who are already ready for the return of democracy and an economic and social boom never before seen in the history of our country. The Transition has already begun. I present to you the Venezuela Land of Grace that we are building." (Note: I translated this post from Spanish, and the video below is also in Spanish, but you don't have to speak the language to understand it.)
¡Esta es la Venezuela que viene!
— María Corina Machado (@MariaCorinaYA) August 28, 2025
Aquí puedes ver, en sólo 4 minutos, el sueño de millones de ciudadanos que ya estamos listos para el retorno de la democracia y un auge económico y social nunca antes visto en la historia de nuestro país.
La Transición ya empezó. Te… pic.twitter.com/7K5VykhE1B
Ultimately, Venezuelans are starving. They have no money. Maduro is hemorrhaging support because of it. I see the ones who got away cheering more and more for exactly this kind of renaissance in their home country.
Rubio's Upcoming Trip to the Region
As I was writing this article, I got word from the State Department that Rubio is actually traveling to the region next week, making stops in Mexico and Ecuador "to advance key U.S. priorities." A press release reads:
These include swift and decisive action to dismantle cartels, halt fentanyl trafficking, end illegal immigration, reduce the trade deficit, and promote economic prosperity and counter malign extra continental actors.
The Secretary’s fourth trip to our hemisphere demonstrates the United States’ unwavering commitment to protect its borders, neutralize narco-terrorist threats to our homeland, and ensure a level playing field for American businesses. Secretary Rubio’s engagements will deepen bilateral ties with Mexico and Ecuador and foster broader burden sharing across our region.
Again, this is just speculation on my part, but while there's no direct mention of Venezuela, I'm certain that plays a role in his timing. Ecuador was one of the first countries to follow our lead in designating Cartel de los Soles a terrorist organization, and it had every reason to. Mass migration from Venezuela strains Ecuador's economy. Drug trafficking and crime from Venezuelan gangs and terrorist organizations like the cartel and Tren de Aragua have turned the country from one of the most peaceful in Latin America to one of the most violent. Last year, Venezuela cut diplomatic ties with Ecuador and closed its embassy there.
Mexico tends to be softer on Venezuela, and, of course, it has its own cartel problems. My guess is that Rubio goes in there with a tougher message.
Maduro's Response and Rumors of Exile
Maduro is obviously paying attention, and it does sound like he's nervous. "No empire will touch the sacred soil of Venezuela," he said as part of campaign to convince Venezuelans to join his militia to battle the U.S., which he claims has about 4.5 million members. Rumor has it that this number is much lower. CBS reports that in 2000, it was around 343,000 and the people volunteering now are "civil servants, housewives, and retirees." He's also reportedly sending 15,000 troops to the Venezuelan-Colombian border.
Maduro is also publicly playing up his relationship with one of those extra continental actors the State Department press release mentioned: China. I guess he thinks that will keep the Trump administration at bay, but it doesn't seem like China is all that interested in defending him against us.
Miami-based Peruvian journalist Jaime Bayly claimed this week that Maduro actually has one foot out the door. He alleges that Maduro is ready to escape to Nicaragua with his family if U.S. military pressure grows.
Unfortunately, even if that's true, Maduro walking away from the country isn't an automatic fix. While Venezuelans are turning on him and have been for some time, a certain power structure filled with Chavista loyalists remains. I don't know what it looks like or what international pressure might do to that, but my fear is that it could be something like Cuba 2.0. Fidel Castro is gone, but the situation remains the same.
Why It Matters
If you made it through all of this, first, thank you. I know this isn't the sexiest of topics. Daily, I see people talk about how the United States should stay out of other countries' affairs, and I agree. To an extent. Unfortunately, the corruption in Venezuelan over the years has become our affair. From drug trafficking to mass migration to dirty relationships with those extra continental actors, it's become our affair in a major way. Gimenez even goes as far as to say Maduro is "killing Americans."
Journalist Arturo McFields has a great piece on the topic over at The Hill, which came out on Wednesday. It's called "The US should overthrow Maduro in Venezuela." He puts it eloquently:
Regime change in Venezuela would deal a devastating blow to the agendas of China, Russia, and Iran in the Western Hemisphere. The U.S. would make it clear that the use of force is an option when it comes to guaranteeing a safe and prosperous hemisphere and would reaffirm that the Americas are a priority for the U.S.
This is also a direct message to Mexico, which would also note Trump’s willingness to confront drug trafficking with all the military power at his disposal, not as an empty promise, but as a national security determination. In other words, the Mexican government must break what the Trump administration considers an 'intolerable alliance' with drug cartels.
Regime change would economically benefit Venezuela and the U.S., while China and Iran’s control over the world’s largest oil reserves would be weakened. Increased oil production in Venezuela under a democratic government would lower gas prices in the U.S. and improve the quality of life for Venezuelans, therefore reducing migration.
And as Rubio has said countless times, everything we do should "make America stronger, it has to make America more prosperous, or it has to make America safer."
Tackling Maduro should do all three.
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There's so much more I could say about each of these topics — I definitely oversimplified many of them here — but I know it's a lot to digest on a topic that doesn't attract or receive the attention it should. That said, I plan to stay on top of it. As I've written in the past, I have a growing interest in Latin American and Caribbean politics, and ultimately, I think a strong and aligned Western Hemisphere is the only way to stop China from dominating the world. What happens here in the weeks and months to come could give us an idea of whether or not that can happen.
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