The gang at PJM Central has been working overtime calculating the results in our first (and hopefully not last) Nostradamus Contest — in this case to predict the order of finish in the recent Florida primary accompanied by the most accurate percentages. We now have the three winners and, no, for once none of them are named Meryl Streep.
They are Steve Grammatico, Bill Kotzbucher, and Jerry Jordan. All three gentlemen will receive iPad2s plus a three-month free subscription to PJTV.
We asked the three wizards how they arrived at their conclusions, by-passing thousands of competitors.
Steve Grammatico told us:
How did I formulate my predictions? I ignored the polls because they were all over the place and changing, it seemed, every ten minutes. I went with my gut. Took me about thirty seconds. Forgot to factor in the write-ins, but I guess that didn’t matter.
And then he added:
Actually, I did employ a stratagem, worked out over several years, involving bivariate analysis, interval variables, and the effects of stratified sampling on Likert Scale datasets. I’d be happy to entertain questions from Rasmussen and Gallup about my methodology.
You will not be surprised to learn that Mr. Grammatico is a satirist who has written for Big Government.
As for Bill Kotzbucher:
I heard about the contest through the PJ Media website. I’m a regular reader.
I entered the contest because my wife has recently observed that I never win anything. I’d like to tell you that I had a specific method but all I did was to recall a recent poll and then adjust to hit exactly 100%. In other words, it was mostly blind luck.
The only other thing I would like to add is that your site has some of the most intelligent conservative writing on the web.
No, we didn’t pay Mr. Kotzbucher to say that and he’s still only getting one iPad. As for Jerry Jordan, well, he didn’t share with us his methods, which may mean he is the man to watch in the next Nostradamus Contest.
That one, most probably, will be a real mind bender — Super Tuesday. I’d have enough trouble counting the number of primaries for that one, let alone predicting the percentages in all of them. Hell, I don’t even think I could predict who will be running at that point.
Nevertheless, a lot of people had fun with this contest, so we are pushing on to the next. No word on what the prizes will be, but watch this space. One thing I can predict — it won’t be an all-expense paid cruise on the Costa Concordia.
Meanwhile… big congratulations to the winners. I understand Mr. Grammatico is going to appear on PJTV to accept his award. At that point, he may explain what Likert Scale datasets are.