Nuclear War Between Iran and Israel Has Become More Likely: Here's Why

The U.S. is not going to supply Israel with military weapons unless it buys them. This is not a crisis for Israel. Jerusalem is capable of buying our weapons or manufacturing its own by tapping into its robust arms industry. It certainly doesn't need the United States to defend itself.

And the U.S. isn't exactly abandoning Israel. Relations are still warm, or at least cordial, and there's no reason to believe that will change. Even if opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot can cobble together a coalition government, it's extremely unlikely that Israel will move further away from the U.S. in any realistic sense.

The threat to U.S.-Israel relations comes from the United States and from both political parties.  

Some MAGA Republicans apparently believe we're still living in the 19th century when we didn't only have to worry about threats over the horizon. To undermine our best ally in the Middle East by claiming our close relations directly led to an electoral disaster is barmy. 

“The real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone,” Vice President JD Vance wrote. “The reason we lost is the war,” he explained, after pointing out polls demanding Americans want politicians to “Put America First” and “Change our relationship to Israel.”

What Vance should have done is "put decent candidates first," not impeached crooks, wife beaters, and other sundry less-than-stellar personalities. The GOP ran bad candidates with a bad message. Israel had nothing to do with Trump's self-inflicted wounds.

It doesn't get any simpler than that.

Now that Vance has pointed the finger directly at U.S. support for Israel, MAGA Republicans feel much freer to lay into Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Do they really believe Trump was manipulated into supporting Israel in its existential war against Iran and its proxies? If they were Democrats making that argument, we'd accuse them of being anti-Semites.

Meanwhile, our apparent step away from Israel by many former allies in the U.S. has stiffened Tehran's backbone and will threaten an existential crisis for Israel.

"If the United States distances itself from Israel and its security needs, neither Democrats nor Republicans will bring peace," writes Michael Rubin of Middle East Forum. Iran "has planned for decades and makes calculated decisions to attack shipping and launch ballistic missiles at more than a dozen regional states, most of whom were never combatants." 

"By signaling abandonment of Israel, Democrats and Republicans encourage the Islamic Republic and its terrorist proxies to believe they can win," Rubin adds. When Barack Obama announced that our commitment to Afghanistan was not "open-ended," it opened the door for the Taliban to simply wait us out. Obama's idiotic error condemned the U.S. to chase a will-o'-the-wisp for more than a decade, looking for a "just" end to the war that was never going to materialize.

We have consistently underestimated Iran's resiliency. We have severely damaged their infrastructure, their military capabilities, their leadership, and their economy. And yet, they survive. That's why they could believe (fanatically or not) that they could withstand an Israeli retaliatory strike if Iran were to develop a nuclear weapon. 

The late Ali Khamenei issued a nuclear fatwa eschewing the construction and use of a nuclear weapon. That didn't stop the Iranians from carrying out research and tests on a bomb design and other elements necessary to construct a bomb. And, of course, it didn't stop Iran from spinning up about 400 pounds of highly enriched uranium to 60%, enough to make eight or nine bombs.

Former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani essentially made the case for a nuclear attack on Israel. “The use of even one nuclear bomb inside Israel will destroy everything,” he said. Israel is just 10 miles wide at its narrowest, leading some experts to wonder how much of Israel would be left if Iran struck. Iranian doctrine envisions that the leadership cadres and technical experts could survive a retaliatory strike by Israel by moving them away from population centers, meaning that the Islamic state would survive. Israel may not.

It's not that Israel needs U.S. weapons. They don't. They need our support as a backstop in the international community and as a fail-safe in the event Iran goes nuclear. It's not in anyone's interest for Iran to get a nuclear weapon. Did the U.S. just embolden Iran to go nuclear by stepping away from our previously close relationship?

Editor's Note: President Trump is leading America into the "Golden Age" as Democrats desperately try to stop it.  

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