Trump's Iran Strategy Could Be a War Winner if He Sticks to It

Everything appeared to be in place for a massive strike on Iran's oil and nuclear infrastructure after the midterm elections. Then, on Monday, Donald Trump met with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, and everything changed. 

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told his G7 counterparts in Paris on Tuesday that instead of bombing or signing a "ridiculous" peace deal, Trump was pursuing his third option: strangling Iran into submission.

"The President doesn't just have two options. It's not just return to war or sign a ridiculous peace deal.  We won't do a stupid deal. The third option we have is to continue to do what we do now," Rubio said, according to Axios.

There's no timeline for success. "The President is not under false time pressure; the Iranians are inflicting major damage on their own economy," Rubio said.

The administration had been divided between those who favored a military strike and those who wanted to end the conflict by making a deal with Tehran. In the end, Trump chose to stick with the strategy he's been employing since last July: blockade and strangle the enemy. 

The pressure has been increasing recently as the U.S. is implementing "Task Force Iron Gate," which will close off several land routes from Iran's neighbors into the country.

Its primary objective is to monitor, detect, and disrupt the flow of advanced weapons systems, dual-use technologies, sanctioned materials (such as explosives and heavy hardware), and illicit financial revenue streams into Iran.   

Dana Stroul, the Pentagon’s former top Middle East official in the Biden administration, said it was a “‘Kitchen sink’ strategy.” It will aim, she said, to “squeeze any pressure relief valves the Iranian regime is using to circumvent the sanctions and naval blockade.”

Several U.S. allies in the region are balking at America's request that they halt most trade with Iran.

The New York Times:

Former U.S. military officials and analysts say the move was likely aimed at taking advantage of Centcom’s intelligence capabilities and resources, which were already focused on Iran amid the war. Centcom, they said, could sharpen the focus and organization of previously uncoordinated efforts among diplomats, anti-money laundering units and intelligence agencies to clamp down on land routes.

For Iraq — one of Iran’s largest cross-border trading partners — the latest U.S. effort could be particularly dangerous. The Iraqis fear unrest among smuggling networks and militants along a rugged, 994-mile border they cannot fully control. Washington has long been aware of Iran’s use of the porous frontier with Iraq to smuggle weapons and money to its militia allies there.

"Iran would love a deal. The problem is the conditions they continue to place are absurd. Like, they're not even serious right now," Rubio told reporters after the G7 meeting. 

"Eventually you have to eat," he said. "Eventually the economic realities penetrate the skull of even the most radical lunatic. So I think as time goes on that will have an impact."

There are 93 million Iranians who have to eat. While the blockade allows humanitarian supplies like food and medicine to pass, the ongoing disruption of shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz and heightened risk to commercial vessels have caused severe logistical bottlenecks, driving up shipping and insurance costs and heavily complicating the actual delivery of goods into the region. 

In Tehran, the shelves are empty, the workers aren't working, and the financial system is teetering. Meanwhile, the people see that the leadership and elites aren't losing any weight, nor is the Revolutionary Guard Corps. 

Because the economic attrition is so severe, most analysts warn that Iran is unlikely to simply wait out the blockade quietly. Instead, the consensus is that Tehran will eventually reach a breaking point where it resorts to renewed military action, asymmetric strikes, or attempts to aggressively challenge the blockade in the Persian Gulf to force Washington's hand, rather than slowly suffocating under the status quo. 

That would play directly into Trump's hands. 

Editor's Note: President Trump is leading America into the "Golden Age" as Democrats desperately try to stop it.  

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