The World Cup is coming to North America. At least seven million tourists will descend on the U.S., Mexico, and Canada in the largest World Cup in history. The field has been expanded from 64 to 104 matches, and from 32 to 48 teams. That means more money. Revenue estimates are in the $11-$13 billion range, with TV broadcast rights projected to exceed $4.2 billion. Ticket sales are expected to reach a record $3.1 billion (a 216% increase over the 2022 World Cup in Qatar). Marketing and sponsorships are projected to surpass $2.7 billion.
Mexico will host 13 of the 104 matches played during the World Cup, from June 11 to July 19. Canada will also host 13 games, while America gets 78 matches, including the title game in New Jersey.
Mexico's participation is controversial. Since a third of the planet speaks Spanish, FIFA felt it would be insulting not to include Mexico with the U.S. and Canada as host countries. They are probably going to wish they weren't so politically correct.
Mexico is close to being a failed state in many ways. It's creaky infrastructure, crooked police, and the ever-present cartels make going to a World Cup match a crap shoot. No doubt Mexico will try to put on a good show, but the cartels don't care about Mexico's national image. If they have business to conduct, they won't care who gets in the way.
Mexico has hosted the World Cup twice, the last time in 1986. I vacationed in Mexico in 1987. It was a beautiful country, and the places I went to were relatively safe. I don't think you can say the same thing today.
One of the venues hosting the World Cup matches is Guadalajara. On February 22, a major federal law-enforcement operation resulted in the death of a prominent cartel leader, Oseguera Cervantes ("El Mencho"). This triggered widespread unrest across the state of Jalisco,
Criminal groups set up "narco-blockades" using burning vehicles and engaged in shootouts with security forces. The U.S. Embassy and other foreign missions issued urgent "shelter-in-place" advisories for Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta. Significant disruptions were reported at Guadalajara’s airport and on major highways.
Granted, the matches are three months away. But why should the Jalisco or any other cartel care about behaving themselves during the World Cup? Are they going to stop killing each other just to make Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum look good with the international community?
"Of course, we are monitoring the situation in Mexico these days, but I want to say from the outset that we have complete confidence in Mexico, in its president, Claudia Sheinbaum, and in the authorities, and we are convinced that everything will go as smoothly as possible," FIFA President Gianni Infantino said Tuesday in Colombia.
Famous last words.
Jalisco's Estadio Akron is set to host a World Cup qualifying playoff next month as well as four World Cup games in June.
The governor of Jalisco, Pablo Lemus, also reiterated there is no danger of Mexico losing its World Cup host status after Monday's meeting with the world's football governing body. Infantino also reassured supporters.
"We have some matches in Mexico in a month, the World Cup playoffs, and the new Azteca Stadium will also be inaugurated," he said.
"Mexico is a great football country. Like in every country in the world, things happen; we don't live on the moon or another planet. That's why we have governments, police, and authorities who will ensure order and security."
This reminds me of Kevin Bacon's famous scene in Animal House with the crowd stampeding and him standing in the way, saying, "All is well. Remain calm."
"There's absolutely no intention on FIFA's part to take any of Mexico's host sites away," said Jalisco's governor, Pablo Lemus. They can't take the games away. FIFA is committed. Mexico is committed. The TV networks, the corporate sponsors, and the hospitality industry are committed.
The Jalisco cartel could have a shootout during a soccer match inside the stadium, and Lemus would smile and say, the authorities will ensure order and security. That's how little Mexico and FIFA care about the soccer fans who are coming from all over the world, hoping not to get dead in Guadalajara.
