The "redistricting wars" are a smokescreen for Democrats. California, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, and a few other blue states looking to make a mid-term redistricting push are finding legal and administrative bars in their way to changing their maps in any significant way.
Meanwhile, Texas Republicans are celebrating redrawing their map to theoretically give them a shot at winning five extra seats. It's theoretical because the GOP is basing its hopes on the idea of "permanent realignment" of Hispanics leaving the Democratic Party in huge numbers. It was certainly the major headline from the 2024 election, but was it a transient electoral event based on the presence of Donald Trump on the ballot, or will it last?
It's not only Hispanics whose support has begun to trend toward the GOP. Gallup's annual survey of party identification found the Republicans with a 46-45% edge over Democrats, the third straight year the GOP showed ahead of the DNC.
In addition, UnHerd's Michael Baharaeen notes that "Data from Pew Research last month reinforced this finding and also showed that Republicans have either grown their advantage or narrowed Democrats’ advantage with several key demographic groups since 2020, including men, racial minorities, non-college voters, and young people."
PJM's Matt Margolis has been covering many aspects of the Democrat's existential crisis that has brought them to an electoral dead end with no way out. Their biggest problem is that they are victims of their own success. They have successfully captured college-educated, culturally liberal voters from big cities, women, blacks, and other urban minorities.
Unfortunately, those groups do not total 50% of the electorate. Not even close. As Republicans shear off large chunks of that coaliton, they work their own redistricting tomfoolery and stuff more and more of their voters into a growing number of uncompetitive districts.
The result, as moderate Democratic Party strategist Ruy Teixeira notes in The Free Press, is that the number of truly competitive swing districts has shrunk considerably. "Democrats and Republicans are moving away from each other, or what political scientists call “self-sorting," writes Teixeira.
If anything, incumbent Democratic lawmakers only have to worry about challenges from other Democrats coming at them from the left. This is a problem for a number of reasons, not least of which is that there’s very little motivation for most of them to appear at all moderate.
This dynamic is terrible for the party’s reputation and its long-term electoral prospects and poses a far graver danger to Democrats than aggressive Republican gerrymandering in red states.
The significance of this dynamic is reinforced by ideological trends among Democrats. The simple fact is that today’s Democrats, both lawmakers and voters alike, are remarkably different from the Democrats of yesteryear: they are far more liberal.
Indeed, the energy, the money, and all the emotion in the Democratic Party is from the radical left. To forestall any challenges from the truly radical wing of the party, incumbent Democrats not only feel obligated to demonstrate how much they hate Trump and the right, but they must also mirror the radicals' positions on transgenderism, climate change, taxes, and other cultural issues.
This is not your daddy's Democratic Party. It's not even the Democratic Party of ten years ago. Democrats today are as close to being a reflection of the radical European left as any American political movement has ever gotten. It makes them easy to run against but incredibly dangerous if they ever take full control of the government.
The radical Democratic base will hold congressional Democrats' feet to the fire, forcing them to submit or risk excommunication. As Teixeira points out, "As recently as 2008, moderates and liberals were evenly balanced among Democrats and conservatives were still over a fifth of the total."
Today, less than one in ten Democrats call themselves "conservative." No wonder the middle has deserted them.
Put all this together and the incentive structure for today’s Democratic politicians comes into focus. They are far more likely to be rewarded by their voters for no-holds-barred progressivism than to be punished for their lack of moderation or willingness to compromise. This has left the Democrats in poor shape to course-correct against the loss of moderate-to-conservative working-class voters in the age of Trump.
Even if individual Democratic politicians wish to do so, the pressures to stay within the bounds of Democratic orthodoxy are enormous. Sticking with the true faith generates adulation from activists, favorable media coverage, and gushers of donations. Breaking ranks risks unhinged attacks on social media and accusations of helping the right and undermining “democracy.” Not too many Democratic politicians want to take that risk.
Redistricting battles will come and go. But the Democrats have a true "radical" problem. They scare a lot of voters. Unless and until the more reasonable elements of the party regain control, the Democrats are cooked.
Related: Is America Finally Ready for a Serious Third Party?
