The stakes couldn't be higher for Donald Trump in the mid-term elections in November 2026. Democrats are literally salivating at the prospect of winning control of the House and launching a dizzying number of investigations into the actions of the president and his team in trying to bring the federal behemoth under some semblance of control.
Number one on the Democrats' agenda is impeachment. As they showed during Trump's first term, their loose definition of "high crimes and misdemeanors" will lead to an unlimited number of Articles of Impeachment. The only question is whether the Democratic leadership can restrain their members and keep the number of impeachment articles to a minimum.
For the Republican Party, it will be the most important off-year election in decades. The current balance of power sits at 220 Republicans and 212 Democrats, with three seats vacant. The three vacant seats were all held by Democrats who died in office.
The Republicans have no margin for error in the 2026 election. Knowing this, Donald Trump is bringing the full weight of the presidency and his personal prestige into the fight to keep control of the House.
The president and his campaign team have devised a five-step plan to maintain control of the House and protect the president from the Democrats' machinations:
1. Prevent the retirements of swing-state Republicans.
2. Spend hugely.
3. Limit primary challenges.
4. Spend even more cash using Trump often and effectively as a fundraiser.
5. Effective recruitment.
1. Discouraging Retirements
Many incumbent GOP members, looking at the diminished prospects of Republicans hanging on to control of the House, may think seriously of retiring or running for another office. Trump and his team want to discourage them from doing so.
"Incumbents with established fundraising and campaigning networks are almost always better positioned to win than any challengers," notes Axios.
A few Republicans like Kentucky's Rep. Andy Barr and Michigan's John James have already declared for the Senate. But Trump is personally leaning on several other GOP representatives who are thinking of running for governor or senator.
2. Spend Hugely
The head start Trump has gotten on fundraising is impressive.
Trump has built a $500 million-plus political apparatus, and he's already unloading some of it with 2026 in mind.
Securing American Greatness, a pro-Trump group that works with the White House, has launched a multimillion-dollar ad campaign touting his economic agenda in the districts of eight vulnerable House Republicans.
The commercials also are airing in 13 districts where Trump won in November, but House GOP candidates lost.
Trump also has a leadership PAC, Never Surrender, planning to give directly to Republican candidates.
Related: Biden Ads Never Ran Because the Campaign Believed They Were 'Unusable'
3. Limit Primary Challengers
Limiting primary challengers is a delicate matter, given that the energy from the challengers and their supporters will be needed for the general election.
Trump will endorse members who are threatened with primary challenges early to scare off any potential trouble for incumbents.
Trump is the party's most effective fundraiser, and no one is better at opening the wallets of Republican whales. Trump will hold an unusual number of fundraisers for individual members, as well as several events for the Republican Party and its various campaign committees.
5. Recruiting the Right Candidates
In the last three midterm elections, Republicans have not had the best luck convincing Republicans with decent name recognition and a solid track record of achievement to run.
Trump will look to change that.
Trump's political operation and the NRCC are seeking out candidates in swing-district contests with no incumbents. Their goal is to get the party to coalesce around a Trump-and-GOP-backed candidate to avoid a bloody primary, a Trump ally said.
Trump will play the role of "closer" in getting prospects off the fence and into contests.
"A promise of Trump's help and an endorsement can be key in getting a wanted recruit to make the leap," Gorman said.
Hopefully, the economy will be booming by November 2026, making the Republicans' task more manageable. And there's always the chance that the Democrats will find a way to fumble on the one-yard line and double down on the rhetoric and policies that cost them so dearly in 2024.
In this case, it's best to hope for the best and plan for the worst.
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