Israel is reportedly preparing to strike Iran's nuclear sites despite ongoing U.S. talks with Tehran about their nuclear program.
There have been hints that Donald Trump and Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu do not see eye-to-eye on several issues, including the future of Gaza and what to do about Iran's nuclear program.
Gaza is a puzzle that Trump now seems willing to let Netanyahu deal with. But the two leaders have had diverging views on Iran, with Trump believing he can make a deal to stop Iran's push to get the bomb, while Netanyahu wants to take out Iran's capability of ever constructing a nuclear device.
The Israeli government has reached no final decision on striking Iran, but one appears imminent. Netanyahu is worried that Trump will agree to a deal that is far short of what Israel believes it needs for its safety. If Israel strikes while the U.S. and Iran are negotiating, that would end any hope of a deal.
“[The] chance of an Israeli strike on an Iranian nuclear facility has gone up significantly in recent months,” one person familiar with U.S. intelligence on the issue told CNN. “And the prospect of a Trump-negotiated U.S.-Iran deal that doesn’t remove all of Iran’s uranium makes the chance of a strike more likely.”
The heightened worries stem not only from public and private messaging from senior Israeli officials that it is considering such a move, but also from intercepted Israeli communications and observations of Israeli military movements that could suggest an imminent strike, multiple sources familiar with the intelligence said.
Among the military preparations the US has observed are the movement of air munitions and the completion of an air exercise, two of the sources said.
But those same indicators could also simply be Israel trying to pressure Iran to abandon key tenets of its nuclear program by signaling the consequences if it doesn’t — underscoring the ever-shifting complexities the White House is navigating.
CNN has asked the National Security Council and the Israeli prime minister’s office for comment. The Israeli Embassy in Washington did not comment.
“At the end of the day, the Israeli decision-making is going to be predicated on US policy determinations and actions, and what agreements President Trump does or does not come to with Iran,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior intelligence official specializing in the Middle East.
Netanyahu is between a rock and a hard place. He has his own hawks urging him to strike Iran sooner rather than later, and he is also cognizant that a strike while Trump is negotiating with Tehran would severely damage Israel's relationship with the U.S.
As for Iran, this is the time of maximum pressure. Weakened by Israel's strikes, the power of its proxies severely diluted, its economy on its back, and unrest stirring in the streets, Tehran should move on to "Plan B" before it's too late.
Unfortunately for them, they have no "Plan B."
While rising U.S.-Iran tensions over Tehran's uranium enrichment jeopardize nuclear talks, three Iranian sources said on Tuesday that the clerical leadership lacks a clear fallback plan if efforts to resolve a decades-long dispute collapse.
With negotiations faltering over clashing red lines, Iran may turn to China and Russia as a "Plan B", the sources said, but with Beijing's trade war with Washington and Moscow distracted with its war in Ukraine, Tehran’s backup plan appears shaky.
"The plan B is to continue the strategy before the start of talks. Iran will avoid escalating tensions, it is ready to defend itself," a senior Iranian official said.
"The strategy also includes strengthening ties with allies like Russia and China."
Iran is running out of time. The leadership is dealing with mounting crises, including energy and water shortages, a plummeting currency, rising unemployment, and a simmering restlessness among the people.
"Without lifting sanctions to enable free oil sales and access to funds, Iran’s economy cannot recover,” said an anonymous Western official.
Most observers think it will be impossible to get Iran to give up nuclear enrichment. They've made it a part of their national identity. It's the only "First World" aspect found in their entire Third World nation (much like Pakistan).
"So that means they will come to an impasse, and that we will face the potential for war, which I don't think, quite frankly, President Trump looks forward to because he has campaigned as a peace president," said Wendy Sherman, former U.S. Undersecretary for Political Affairs for Barack Obama.
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Trump may have campaigned to end the war in Ukraine, but an Iranian atomic weapon, coupled with its Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) program, is an existential threat to the United States. If he has to, Trump will assist Israel in taking out Iranian enrichment facilities and its nuclear infrastructure.
Iran knows its time is short. I would expect that they will have to make a deal with Trump in the next couple of months or find a very deep bomb shelter.
