A new report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has worrying implications for peace in the Middle East.
The nuclear watchdog says that since August 2024, the Iranians have significantly added to their stockpile of Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU). Iran's HEU stockpile went from 363.1 pounds last August to 605.8 pounds of uranium enriched up to 60% in February. This is enough HEU to fashion six nuclear bombs after a short step to finish the enrichment process to 90%.
“The significantly increased production and accumulation of high enriched uranium by Iran, the only non-nuclear weapon State to produce such nuclear material, is of serious concern,” the confidential report seen by the Associated Press stated.
U.S. intelligence has tracked the increase as well and is warning that Israel will soon have no choice but to strike Iran's nuclear facilities.
Iran's advanced centrifuges, which Barack Obama stupidly allowed under the 2015 nuclear agreement, are now spinning faster than ever to produce the near-weapons-grade HEU. Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar says that time is growing short to stop Tehran from going nuclear.
"So we don't have much time," he said. Sa'ar claimed that Israel still wants to pursue a diplomatic path, but that the chances of such an approach succeeding "not huge," and that failure to stop Iran's nuclear program would be a "catastrophe for the security of Israel."
That's putting it mildly. Iran has been threatening to destroy the state of Israel since the revolution in 1980. As a matter of national survival, Israel must take these threats seriously.
"I think that in order to stop a nuclear Iranian program before it will be weaponized, a reliable military option should be on the table," Sa'ar said when he was asked about the possibility of strikes during Trump's presidency. Sa'ar added that failure to stop Iran from going nuclear would almost certainly lead to an arms race between Iran and the Saudis, Egyptians, and Turkey.
Trump can count on Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jingping to back Iran in any conflict with Israel. Iran is their only real proxy left in the Middle East, and both nations desperately want to hold on to the influence they have now.
Trump had high hopes that the threat of new sanctions the U.S. will impose on Iran would be enough to bring Tehran to the table. The IAEA report throws cold water on that prospect.
“I think the Iranian strategy is to advance the program under fire. They’re going to use maximum pressure as an excuse to continue to advance their program and master certain technologies, all while generating leverage,” Behnam Ben Taleblu, the senior director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Iran Program, told the Morning Dispatch. Taleblu added that Tehran hopes to “create the argument that, ‘You pushed us, you forced me to weaponize, you forced me to turn that last screw.’ It’s a very dangerous and risky strategy but also [a] clever move.”
Indeed, it's all Iran has left. It has zero leverage against Israel except the prospect of being able to detonate a nuclear weapon. It also has zero leverage against the U.S. and the West.
That might have been different if Joe Biden won another term. He would have seen to it that Iran wouldn't have to worry about a strike from America or Israel on the regime's nuclear infrastructure. It would almost have guaranteed Iran getting a nuclear bomb.
But Biden didn't win. It's Trump's problem now.
“President Trump has put the Iran Regime on notice by reimposing Maximum Pressure and is committed to ensuring the regime never gets a nuclear weapon. He has also made clear he is open to talks with Iran to come to an agreement that fully addresses the outstanding issues between our two countries,” National Security Council spokesperson Brian Hughes said.
The very last thing Iran wants is peace with the U.S. or Israel. The regime maintains an iron grip on the population by playing up the threat from "The Great Satan" and the Zionist devils. It wouldn't survive without us.
Iran’s accelerated production of near weapons-grade uranium puts more pressure on Trump as he’s repeatedly said he’s open to negotiations with the Islamic Republic while also increasingly targeting Iran’s oil sales with sanctions as part of his reimposed “maximum pressure” policy.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has final say on all state matters, in a speech in August opened the door to talks with the U.S., saying there is “no harm” in engaging with the “enemy.”
However, more recently he tempered that, saying that negotiations with America “are not intelligent, wise or honorable” after Trump floated nuclear talks with Tehran.
“Regarding the nuclear negotiations, the position of the Islamic Republic of Iran is very clear. We will not negotiate under pressure, threat, or sanctions,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Tuesday during a press conference.
At the most, Iran is a few weeks away from successfully enriching its stockpile from 60% to 90%, which is weapons grade.
"Iran’s nuclear program has reached the point at which, within about one week, Iran might be able to enrich enough uranium for five fission weapons. For that uranium to pose a nuclear weapon threat, however, it would have to be processed further, and the other components of a successful weapon would have to be ready to receive the processed uranium. Weaponization activities could take anywhere from several months to a year or more, although the timeframe is uncertain."
It wouldn't take much additional weaponization to build a "gun-type" nuclear weapon like the one used against Hiroshima. A plug of HEU shot at high speed into a barely subcritical mass of U-235 produced a 15-kiloton blast that leveled most of the city.
Israel will not let Tehran get that far.
