In 1947, scientists who developed the first nuclear bombs came up with a way to gauge how close the world was to nuclear annihilation. They created a "Doomsday Clock" to publicize the release of the first issue of their magazine. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists showed the clock on its cover, with the clock set at seven minutes to midnight.
Although there was no other nation that possessed nuclear weapons, everyone knew that the Soviet Union would soon have them. Sure enough, in 1949, the Soviets detonated a device in Central Asia, setting off an arms race. The atomic scientists moved the clock to three minutes to midnight, saying, "We do not advise Americans that doomsday is near and that they can expect atomic bombs to start falling on their heads a month or year from now. But we think they have reason to be deeply alarmed and to be prepared for grave decisions.”
Since then, the list of nuclear nations has grown to nine, with several other nations capable of building a bomb (Japan, Germany, Iran) but not declaring active programs.
When the U.S. detonated the first hydrogen bomb in 1952, and the Russians followed in 1953, the atomic scientists moved the clock to two minutes to midnight.
In 1960, they moved it back to seven minutes with the signing of the Test Ban Treaty. After the Cuban Missile Crisis was resolved peacefully, they moved the clock to 12 minutes to midnight.
In 1981, the clock fell to just two minutes to midnight with the election of Ronald Reagan, went back to seven minutes when the START treaty was signed, and with the collapse of the Soviet Union, went all the way back to 12 minutes in 1990.
The drama of a potential nuclear war was getting a little boring for the atomic scientists, so they added climate change to the list of disasters that would seal the world's fate. In 2020, the clock moved to 100 seconds to midnight.
The Ukraine War and the election of Donald Trump have nearly caused the Atomic scientists' heads to explode. They moved the Doomsday Clock to 89 seconds to midnight, closer than it's ever been.
In 2024, humanity edged ever closer to catastrophe. Despite unmistakable signs of danger, national leaders and their societies have failed to do what is needed to change course. In setting the Clock one second closer to midnight, the Science and Security Board sends a stark signal: Because the world is already perilously close to the precipice, a move of even a single second should be taken as an indication of extreme danger and an unmistakable warning that every second of delay in reversing course increases the probability of global disaster.
The original atomic scientists who created the clock were part of the Chicago Atomic Scientists group that built the bomb and wanted the United States government to agree to give up control of the bomb to a group of international scientists who would make nuclear power available to all.
It was delusional, of course. Atomic scientists haven't become any more reality-based in the intervening 70 years when setting the Doomsday Clock.
One change in this year's Doomsday Clock is the inclusion of artificial intelligence as a threat. Daniel Holz, chairman of the Bulletin's Science and Security Board, believes AI married to military technology and "misinformation" could mean curtains for us all.
Artificial intelligence made rapid gains in capability and popularity in 2024, prompting increasing concern among some experts about its military applications and its risks to global security. In the United States, then-President Joe Biden in October signed an executive order intended to reduce the risks that AI poses to national security, the economy and public health or safety. His successor Donald Trump last week revoked it.
"Advances in AI are beginning to show up on the battlefield in tentative but worrisome ways, and of particular concern is the future possibility of AI applications to nuclear weapons. In addition, AI is increasingly disrupting the world's information ecosystem. AI-fueled disinformation and misinformation will only add to this dysfunction," Holz said.
It's presumptuous for a bunch of scientists to tell us how close the end of the world is to becoming a reality. I think the world was just as close to annihilation when the clock was at 12 minutes as it is today. The difference is in perception. And the atomic scientists sure have gotten a lot of mileage out of the perception they have a corner on wisdom when it comes to predicting the end of the world.
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