At this time of a probable losing national campaign, when the number of days left to catch up slowly dwindles close to single digits, campaign aides, surrogates, and party leaders begin the process of forming the traditional circular firing squad.
These are political professionals whose cred rests solely on their track record. There are no points for finishing second. It is vital to their future employment prospects that they avoid the stink of defeat at all costs.
Hence, finger-pointing. Axios, one of the most plugged-in left-wing news sites, reports that after "scores of conversations with people close to Harris and intimately involved in swing-state races," the broad consensus is that "Harris is going to lose and it's not my fault."
They're pointing fingers at Biden for "dragging his feet" and refusing to bow out sooner. Harris herself is being fingered for never getting around to defining herself for voters beyond "Donald Trump is a poopy head."
Democrats point out that she's made too many cases against Trump — a scattershot approach that was bound to fail. The final pathetic, desperate attempt to paint Trump as Hitler has failed to move the needle.
No need to wonder why. Like the massive overuse of the charge of "racist" during the Obama years, the "fascist" label has lost its power to do damage.
Meanwhile, as he did in 2016, Trump is going for the jugular.
Trump's closing ad campaign has been tightly focused on two clips: an ad focused on transgender rights ("Kamala's agenda is they/them, not you"), and Harris' own words on "The View" that "not a thing" comes to mind about how she'd differ from Biden. (She has since said she'd bring a "new generation of leadership.")
Stunning stat: The Trump campaign alone has spent more than $30 million on trans-focused ads (including one in Spanish) in the past 36 days, according to AdImpact data.
Top Republicans, in private conversations, seem shockingly confident, given the consistent 50-50 polls. They talk in granular detail about White House jobs, and discuss policy playbooks for '25.
Even though the polls still show a very tight race, reports on the ground in most of the swing states show momentum building for Trump. Longtime politicos at the local and state level usually have a very good handle on voter sentiment and it's all trending toward the Republican.
Zoom in: Democrats once felt very good about Nevada, a state Biden won in 2020. But early voting has them panicked. Jon Ralston, the top Nevada election expert, writes that the surge in early rural Republican voting — a "rural tsunami" — is ominous for Harris: "There is no good news in these numbers for Dems."
Pennsylvania continues to worry Harris, despite Biden winning there in 2020. Among the seven swing states, it's the one campaign insiders think she absolutely has to win, with signs of GOP momentum in the state's Senate race.
Reality check: Harris inherited a very tough hand. Establishing and executing a campaign for president starting just 3½ months before an election is unprecedented in modern politics.
The Harris campaign has outspent Trump by more than 2-1. More than a billion dollars has been poured into the Democrat's campaign while Republican SuperPACs and campaign committees have spent half of that.
The memes on X are coming hot and heavy.
Harris/Walz & Democrat campaigns pic.twitter.com/C80VMsKH4a
— Abri (@abriNotMe77) October 25, 2024
If they want to point fingers, maybe they should start by looking in a mirror.
Maybe you shouldn't have covered for her for so long, then you could have avoided this.
— Tony Kinnett (@TheTonus) October 25, 2024
Complacency is now the Republican's biggest enemy.
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