At the beginning of August, most Western observers believed that Russia's overwhelming advantage in manpower and armor would eventually grind Ukrainian defenses to dust, giving Russia a victory.
Ukraine's incursion into Kursk hasn't changed that view. Russian President Vladimir Putin hasn't taken any troops from his Eastern offensive that is moving forward slowly and at a tremendous cost in lives and materiel. And Ukraine's incursion, as bold and daring as any move they've made in the war, is not changing the outlook of the war in the near future.
Meanwhile, the troops Ukraine is using for its Kursk operation might be needed in a few weeks to reinforce soldiers on the Donetsk front. The reality for Ukraine hasn't changed much. But the narrative has.
Ukraine is saying that they can win the war and Western leaders need to give them the tools they need to fight it. Specifically, Ukraine wants Joe Biden and other NATO countries who have supplied Ukraine with highly sophisticated weapons, which they have placed restrictions on in terms of where and under what circumstances they can be used, to allow Kyivv to take the gloves off and attack Russia without limits.
“Putin likely assesses that as long as Russia can retain the initiative and prevent Ukraine from conducting operationally significant counteroffensive operations, Russia can inflict decisive losses on Ukraine over the long term, while outlasting Western security assistance to Ukraine and Ukrainian efforts to mobilize more of Ukraine’s economy and population for the war effort," observes the Institute for the Study of War,
But George Barros, a Russian military expert for the US-based Institute for the Study of War, told Business Insider, says the Russians have lost the initiative and may find it difficult to get it back.
"I'm sure historians are going to argue for decades about whether that combat power would have been better spent defending the east versus what it did in the Kursk campaign," Barros said. "I think there's a legitimate discussion to be had here, but generally the best principles of war are that it's better to not sit on your back indefinitely and just take a pounding forever. The Ukrainians now have contested the initiative. The Russians no longer hold the initiative across the entirety of the theater, like they have for most of last year."
Certainly, Ukraine's major allies in the U.S., Great Britain, and Germany are making all the right noises about the Kursk incursion. But are they really convinced the situation has changed with the thrust into Kursk?
We might get an inkling of their thinking when the allies respond to Ukraine's request to allow them to take the gloves off. They run the risk of starting a wider war but the gams made by Ukraine may be worth the risk.
The Ukrainians have persistently sought to overcome hesitation among allies about supplying systems that might escalate the conflict - first with artillery and battle-tanks, later with F16 combat jets and longer-range missiles such as HIMARS and ATACMs.
The ban was relaxed, allowing some US systems to target Russian territory. In Kursk the Ukrainians have further eroded it by using armor inside Russia. US, German and UK-provided armored vehicles and tanks have been seen barreling through the Russian countryside; western missiles have brought down bridges that might otherwise abet Russian defenders.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that Russia’s bluff has been called. “The whole naive, illusory concept of the so-called red lines in relation to Russia, which prevailed in the assessments of the war of some of our partners, crumbled in these days somewhere near Sudzha,” he said.
“Ukraine has demonstrated, again, that the various red lines projected by the Russian president are nothing but a chimera designed to reinforce Western political timidity about decision-making on the war,” said Mich Ryan, a former Australian general.
“The Ukrainian aim here is to demonstrate that Russian victory is not inevitable, and that Ukraine can fight and win,” added Ryan.
Just because Russia hasn't responded to Ukraine's use of Western weapons to hit Russian territory doesn't mean they won't do it. Putin's "red lines" may be different now that Ukraine has made some telling advances.
Hopefully, Ukraine will dig in after their gains and then open negotiations. They may never get a better deal.
