I must admit to being a curmudgeon when Ukraine first crossed the border in the Kursk region of Russia. I pooh-poohed the notion it could be anything significant.
Yet, here we are a week later, and the Ukrainian army has exceeded all expectations and has grabbed about 1,000 square miles of Russian territory, including 74 settlements.
The question confronting the political and military leadership is, "Now what"?
Ukraine could try to reinforce those troops in Russia. That would give Kyivv a nice spit of land to trade for Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia. But it's an open question whether Ukraine could hold on to what they've won even with reinforcements. Russia has all the advantages in this situation, including better interior lines and a lot more men and materiel.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is already taking troops from the East, where they are making slow but steady progress at tremendous cost against the Ukrainian army to reinforce the border regions. Other than that, Putin's response to the incursion has been curiously lagging. What's he waiting for?
Putin is at a loss because the carefully constructed narrative he built up since the spring about a Russian grinding the Ukrainians to dust has been blown to smithereens. Taking troops from that effort is a confession of failure. He will have great difficulty ramping up an offensive in the Donbas once the Kursk situation is resolved.
To opposition-minded politicians, including some of the few remaining inside Russia, Ukraine’s incursion has offered a rare chance to puncture the Kremlin’s narrative that Russia is steadily heading toward victory — even if it was far from certain that Russians would blame Mr. Putin for their ills. One opposition figure, Lev Shlosberg, in the western city of Pskov, compared the state of Russian society to magma gathering beneath a volcano in which it was unclear when or how it would burst to the surface.
“Current events are, of course, intensifying the crisis,” Mr. Shlosberg said in a phone interview. “But we don’t know where and how this energy of dissatisfaction will go.”
Putin has evacuated more than 100,000 people from the border regions and has railed against regional governors for their inadequate response. It's like the entire Russian government is in quicksand and unable to move with the speed necessary to brush off what is still a relatively minor incursion by Ukraine.
As Russian command still struggles to redeploy enough forces to Kursk to contain the invasion—let alone defeat it—it is clear that Ukraine’s quick Kursk operation has already seized far more ground than the unsuccessful 2023 counteroffensive. Ukrainian forces also seem to have been more successful over three days in Kursk than Russian forces were during three months in Kharkiv. It’s a turnaround in Ukraine’s fortunes every bit as dramatic as we have seen in the U.S. presidential race since the candidacy of Vice President Kamala Harris: Suddenly, everything looks different.
“The initial phase of the offensive that saw quick Ukrainian advances and the establishment of defensive positions in the Kursk region appears to be coming to an end,” Andrius Tursa, an advisor at risk consultancy Teneo said on Wednesday.
Ukraine appears to be using its very best troops along with the best of its Western equipment. They can afford to lose neither of these.
“Their loss would have negative implications for the country’s defensive capabilities and could backfire politically, especially if the outcome of the incursion is perceived to be unworthy of the losses," warned Tursa.
Significantly, the morale of Russian soldiers appears to have taken a large hit as large numbers of them are surrendering without much of a fight.
Still, the main result of the offensive isn’t on the battlefields in the Kursk region but in the political environments of Kyiv and Moscow.
Morale and determination have surged in the former, and doubts and uncertainties have increased in the latter. And Western capitals are waking up to a new reality in the war.
Ukraine hasn't had to do much fighting during this incursion. It's not like they're rolling over large numbers of Russian troops. What the fighting demonstrates is that Ukrainian defeat may not be inevitable. It doesn't make victory any more likely, but it demonstrates to Western capitals that there's still fight in the Ukrainian troops and people.
That may prove to be more valuable than any territory gained or lost in this battle.
