Three senior Iranian officials told Reuters on Monday that the only way to keep Iran from attacking Israel in retaliation for the hit on Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was for Jerusalem to ink a cease-fire deal with Hamas.
At the same time, Hamas has expanded its demands and is refusing to take part in negotiations on Thursday. Iran is trying to drive a wedge between Israel and the United States. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition cabinet is fraying around the edges. Netanyahu bashed his defense minister Yoav Gallant after remarks to lawmakers by Gallant leaked to Israeli media.
Gallant dismissed Netanyahu's war aims of "total victory" over Hamas as "gibberish," branding those who say that this is achievable as “heroes with war drums.”
“When Gallant adopts the anti-Israel narrative, he harms the chances of reaching a hostage deal,” the prime minister’s office said in a statement.
In truth, Gallant and Netanyahu rarely see eye-to-eye, so this latest dustup is nothing new. But Hamas may exploit this division in the cabinet to press even more unreasonable demands.
The pressure on Netanyahu is growing both domestically and internationally. But even Netanyahu's fiercest enemies realize that with Iran preparing an attack on Israel perhaps in a matter of hours, this is not the time to sow divisions,
The European Union isn't helping matters any. Josep Borrell, the EU's top diplomat, is preparing to put forward a proposal to sanction the "far right" members of Netanyahu's government, specifically, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir. Smotrich is a leader in the Religious Zionist Party while Ben Givr is a member of the Otzma Yehudit Party. Both men are troublemakers who have made Netanyahu's life miserable.
Ben Givr just threw gasoline on the fire when he led a prayer call at the Al Aqsa Mosque, the holiest shrine in Islam. Smotrich is a bomb thrower. But someone should tell Borrell to mind his own business and stop interfering in Israel's existential fight for survival.
Is Iran serious about forgoing "revenge" against Israel for Hamas to achieve a deal with Israel? Whether it's serious or not is immaterial. Israel will reach a deal with Hamas when the terrorists are well and truly beaten, not before.
Institute for the Study of War:
Iran likely calculates that conditioning its attack on Israel on whether Israel and Hamas reach a ceasefire-hostage deal forces Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to choose between two bad options. Iran could calculate that, if Netanyahu accepts the ceasefire proposal, then he could lose the support of his political coalition. Israeli Foreign Affairs Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Ben Gvir have previously threatened to leave Netanyahu’s coalition if a ceasefire is reached before Hamas is destroyed.[5] Iran may also calculate that, if Netanyahu were to reject Hamas’ proposal, then Netanyahu would be blamed by Israeli society and allies for the ensuing Iranian-led attack on Israel. Either course of action would serve the Iranian objectives of expanding divisions within Israel and isolating Israel from its allies, particularly the United States. Iran may miscalculate the likely responses in Israel and the United States to a successful Iranian strike that causes significant damage or loss of life.
It doesn't matter if Hamas is getting pummeled. It can afford to absorb Israel's blows to put Israel in an increasingly untenable position. As for Iran, it has made its "peace proposal" and can now proceed with whatever calibrated attack on Israel it has chosen.
There are going to be some sleepless nights for Israeli citizens over the next few days.
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