The Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah and Israel have been exchanging cross-border fire since Israel's war with Hamas began after the October 7 attack.
Neither side wants a full-scale war. But the more intense the cross-border exchanges, the more the chance for the escalation to get out of control and lead to an all-out war.
In truth, the last thing Hezbollah wants is a repeat of the 2006 war with Israel that Hezbollah claimed as a "victory." Some victory. Its infrastructure lay in ruins, and some of its best fighting units were decimated. Its territory in Southern Lebanon was laid waste.
But for Israel, the war was a strategic bust. Hezbollah was still intact even if much of its arms were destroyed.
Iran embarked on a military buildup of its ally that will now make Israel pay a huge price for going to war with the terrorists again. And using Hezbollah fighters in Syria to save the Bashar Assad regime gave the 20,000 Hezbollah soldiers invaluable combat experience,
"Hezbollah can now conduct coordinated maneuvers of larger forces, employ suppressive artillery, and conduct logistics to support larger groupings of forces," reports the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
The terrorists have also substantially upgraded their rockets and missiles, including the addition of the most advanced ballistic missiles in Iran's arsenal. Estimates of how many rockets and missiles Hezbollah possesses vary from 120,000 to 200,000.
This is a whole different fighting force that Israel would be facing compared to 2006. It's no wonder that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is treading carefully in the deadly tit-for-tat game the two sides are playing on the border.
However, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken reportedly told Arab leaders recently that it's his sense that Netanyahu wants to go to war against Lebanon. And the reasons are far beyond Israeli security.
The personal political and legal situation of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to be a major determinant of Israeli policy, on this issue as well as others. It has become generally accepted that Netanyahu’s hold on power and probably also his ability to dodge corruption charges will continue only as long as Israel is at war. With Netanyahu himself having recently declared that the “intense phase of the war with Hamas is about to end,” his stake in a full war on the northern front is probably stronger than ever.
As it becomes clearer that Israel will not be able to "destroy Hamas," some analysts think that Netanyahu will look to retrieve his domestic political position by starting a war with Hezbollah.
Is the Israeli prime minister really governed by his emotions rather than reason and logic?
Last week, U.S. Envoy to the Middle East Amos Hochstein traveled to Lebanon trying to head off a war. He didn't speak directly to Hezbollah, but rather to members of the Lebanese government, including Parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri, the most senior Shiite leader in the government and a close ally of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Hochstein reportedly told Berri that the U.S. would fully support Israel if it went to war against Hezbollah. That assistance would include restocking the Iron Dome air defense system, sharing intelligence, and perhaps U.S. strikes on Hezbollah targets.
The risk of the U.S. standing by Israel in a war with Hezbollah is that the U.S. will then be seen as "owning" the war.
If such a war does break out, then, like the Israeli assault on the Gaza Strip, much of the rest of the world will see the United States as owning the conflict. And with that perception comes all the associated ill consequences for U.S. interests, including the opprobrium, diplomatic isolation, and thirst for revenge by violent elements. Moreover, the administration’s posture will not improve the long-term security of the Israeli citizens it supposedly is trying to help.
That would be no reason not to support Israel in its war for survival. Even if Netanyahu is the aggressor, striking someone who wants to wipe you out shouldn't change the calculus of the U.S. support for Israelis.
