The 18-29 demographic has usually been a huge problem for Republicans. Since the Vietnam War, only one Republican has been able to capture a near majority of the youth vote. Ronald Reagan lost to Jimmy Carter by one point in the 18-21 demo and was tied in the 22-29 age group.
But things are different in 2024. Recent public polls suggest that Trump is either tied or ahead of Biden in the 18-29 age group. This is a very big problem for Biden. In 2020, Biden received 60% of the 18-29-year-old demographic.
The 2020 election was an outrider for youth vote turnout. Nearly 55% of the 18-29 demo voted in 2020 compared to an average turnout in the three previous elections in the mid-40s. Clearly, Biden benefitted from the Democrats' framing of Trump as an existential threat to democracy and the republic.
That gambit is not working this time. In fact, most voters of all ages have tuned out the "Trump wants to be a dictator" rhetoric.
The implications are disastrous for Biden. A significant portion of the youth vote is more concerned about inflation and the economy than they are about any other issue except abortion. And despite the rhetoric, most women and men will not base their vote on a single issue.
Public polling suggests a significant shift toward Trump could be coming in the 2024 election among the country's youngest voters.
The latest New York Times/Siena polling of likely voters has President Biden with just a 2-point lead over Trump among those between 18-29. A recent Quinnipiac survey has Trump ahead by a point among registered voters between 18-34.
By contrast, CNN exit polling showed that Biden won the 18-29-year-old vote by 24 percentage points in 2020, and that Hillary Clinton won it by 19 points in 2016.
The polls could be wrong. Pollsters still have trouble reaching the 18-29 age group. Landlines are still the preferred method of contacting voters for surveys, and most younger voters rarely use them.
It's a riddle that pollsters have yet to solve. Because of that, surveys of the youth vote come with red flags attached.
But the Trump campaign is doing everything possible to cater to the youth vote.
Trump is staking out policies that cater to the preferences of younger voters, even as they don't map neatly to the conservative consensus.
After proposing a TikTok ban during his presidency, Trump baffled conservative China hawks by coming out against such a move earlier this year.
The electoral upside of that stance is clear: TikTok is popular among younger users, and support for a ban grows as the age of respondents increases.
Trump joined TikTok and posted his first video earlier this month.
Trump has hugged the cryptocurrency world in recent weeks. He's boosted NFTs, vowed to end regulatory hostility and endorsed U.S.-mined Bitcoin as a way to help America become "energy dominant."
We should look at the rise in Trump's support among younger voters the same way we look at Trump's growing support among black and Hispanic voters. With five months to go before the election, too much can happen to impact the race to get too excited about Trump's youth, black, and Hispanic support.
I think we can expect a significant portion of those groups to return to the Democratic fold by Election Day. And Republicans shouldn't believe they've locked in those voters for eternity. Trump's attraction to these voters probably can't be duplicated by any other Republican.
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