Ukraine may not be losing the war with Russia, but it certainly isn't winning either. This kind of stalemate could go on indefinitely with casualties mounting and the Ukrainian economy stagnating.
Vladimir Putin would like nothing better than to end the war on his terms. He suggested as much in February when he told the U.S. that it could have peace if the war ended with Russian troops occupying their current positions.
This is totally unacceptable to Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has demanded that Russia remove all its troops from Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, which Russia occupied in 2014. Joe Biden has backed this unrealistic demand and has promised to continue to fund Ukraine beyond the $61 billion authorized by Congress last month.
With the promise of unlimited arms, Zelenskyy's only problem will be finding warm bodies to fight. And on that front, the Ukrainian people may be getting tired of the war. Kyiv has lost fewer troops than Russia, but Moscow has 3.5 times the number of people than Ukraine and twice the number of soldiers. In a war of attrition, Russia wins every time.
It was thought at one time that NATO's superior weaponry would give Ukraine a decisive offensive advantage. But the military leadership of Ukraine's army has been lacking. They have been unable to use their superior weaponry to its fullest advantage. And as it turns out, well-constructed defensive works and moderately trained soldiers manning them can resist almost any attack.
Now comes word from Reuters that Putin is ready to try again. The wire service reports that four different sources who have close ties to Putin are saying that the Russian president wants to end the war by freezing the battle lines where they are now in order to open negotiations.
"Putin can fight for as long as it takes, but Putin is also ready for a ceasefire – to freeze the war," said one of the four sources cited by Reuters.
Anticipating rejection from Zelesnkyy and the U.S., Putin is readying his economy to function on a war footing for the foreseeable future.
The appointment last week of economist Andrei Belousov as Russia's defence minister was seen by some Western military and political analysts as placing the Russian economy on a permanent war footing in order to win a protracted conflict.
It followed sustained battlefield pressure and territorial advances by Russia in recent weeks.
However, the sources said that Putin, re-elected in March for a new six-year term, would rather use Russia's current momentum to put the war behind him. They did not directly comment on the new defence minister.
Zelenskyy just got a taste of the fickleness of America's support for his forever war when Congress held Ukraine aid up for three months over domestic U.S. politics.
Zelesnkyy is smart enough to see the near future when current U.S. aid runs out and another president, less enamored of protecting Ukraine's sovereignty, could be in office. At that point, will Zelenskyy look back and ask himself, "Why didn't I take Putin's deal back in the Spring"?
Russia is taking advantage of the interrupted arms pipeline to press its advantage near the second-largest city in Ukraine, Kharkiv. Ukraine retook the city in 2021, which stunned the world at the time.
Now, Zelesnkyy is going to pour everything he has into trying to keep it. The propaganda blow to Ukraine in losing the city for a second time would be difficult to overcome and might make Putin's offer of a ceasefire in place more attractive.
In response to questions for this story, a U.S. State Department spokesperson said any initiative for peace must respect Ukraine’s “territorial integrity, within its internationally recognised borders” and described Russia as the sole obstacle to peace in Ukraine.
“The Kremlin has yet to demonstrate any meaningful interest in ending its war, quite the opposite,” the spokesperson said.
In the past, Kyiv has dismissed Russia's purported readiness to talk as an attempt to shift the blame onto it for the war.
Kyiv says Putin, whose team repeatedly denied he was planning a war before invading Ukraine in 2022, cannot be trusted to honour any deal.
Both Russia and Ukraine have also said they fear the other side would use any ceasefire to re-arm.
Biden is not going to put any pressure on Kyiv to end the war any other way except on its terms. What a waste. Ukraine is not going to achieve its goal of reclaiming its eastern provinces and Crimea. It's impossible unless the U.S. joins the fight and captures that territory for Zelesnkyy.
This is Zelenskyy's only hope: U.S. intervention. Biden knows he'll be impeached if he tries it.
If there's a world left to put him on trial.
