This is an extraordinary development not just in San Francisco politics but in national politics as well. Ethnic Chinese, who make up about 20% of the electorate in San Francisco, are beginning to flex their political muscles.
It should be noted that Chinese voters are not Republicans, nor are they switching parties. But they are nevertheless making their presence felt in this radically left-wing city.
The first hint that things were changing happened in 2022 when Chinese voters in San Francisco got behind the efforts to recall three left-wing school board members and a progressive district attorney.
“I have a deep love for this city, what it was,” said Phil Wong, the 46-year-old son of a Chinese immigrant. “I want to see what it can be again.” Wong says he plans to vote for the tough-on-crime opponent of current Mayor London Breed in the November election.
The Chinese, and Asian-Americans in general, have been a reliable left-wing voting bloc for several decades. But as the Chinese move farther away from their immigrant roots, other issues become important to them: schools, health care, and safety. When the former San Francisco district attorney Chesa Boudin began emptying jails and allowing criminals to return to the streets, it frightened people like Wong who realized that they have a lot more to lose than they previously did.
Members of the Chinese community, who make up one-fifth of this city of 810,000 and a slightly smaller percentage of registered voters, say they have been particularly incensed by incidents of anti-Asian violence, school policies they believe have emphasized equity over merit, and street homelessness. Many are also upset that property crime has long been higher in San Francisco than most other major cities, though it has dropped this year.
Chinese-Americans were among the most emphatic backers of ballot measures passed last month mandating drug screening for public welfare recipients and expanding police powers, as well as the 2022 recall of the three school board members and the district attorney, Chesa Boudin. Their margin of support for those efforts was 10 to 30 percentage points higher than the overall San Francisco voting population, according to an analysis of publicly available data by research firm Data Second. The firm is run by the husband of Marjan Philhour, a candidate for San Francisco Board of Supervisors running on a moderate platform.
“It is a community that can determine the outcome of elections,” said Jason McDaniel, associate professor of political science at San Francisco State University, about the city's ethnic Chinse community.
I see little difference in the rise of Chinese-American power and the rise of Irish power in the 1950s and '60s. The catalyst for the Irish rise to power was World War II and the post-war economic boom as the Irish moved from the inner city to the suburbs.
What is driving the Chinese rise to power is the radical left's policies being at odds with Chinese cultural values. The Chinese firmly believe in meritocracy and have been enraged at the effort to achieve "equity" at the expense of excellence. They, like many newcomers, believe in maintaining law and order as a protection against those who prey upon the weak. Once it became clear that they were voting for people who were destroying their city and their culture, they rebelled.
“Really, what people wanted was government that works and a city that works. Less ideological chest-thumping and more concrete action,” said Nancy Tung, a county prosecutor.
Attacks on the elderly, in particular, have infuriated Chinese-American residents. One of the galvanizing moments in the movement to oust Boudin was a fatal assault on an 84-year-old Thai man in 2021 that many Asian-Americans felt the district attorney played down. In an interview with the New York Times, Boudin had referred to the suspect’s actions as a “temper tantrum.” The 19-year-old suspect was charged with murder and is in custody awaiting trial after pleading not guilty.
“I think that was the straw that broke the camel’s back,” said Garret Tom, a former San Francisco deputy police chief.
It's too soon to judge the national impact of what's happening in San Francisco. But Chinese cultural conservatism gives Republicans an opening to try and exploit. Perhaps not in 2024, but in the coming years as the Chinese become more independent-minded, the GOP will be making a play for this growing electoral faction.
