On Saturday, the House passed the Ukraine aid bill 311-112. That vote started a countdown as a vote to oust Rep. Mike Johnson can be expected soon.
But it's not going to happen immediately. The House will go on a break in the next week after the Senate votes on the aid bill and both chambers vote on the final package.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene's motion to oust Speaker Johnson hangs over the Louisianian's head like the sword of Damocles. Greene is biding her time, hoping that when members go home and hear from their constituents more Republicans will sign on to her motion.
The far right's anger at Johnson does not exist in a vacuum. There is genuine outrage at the local level in many red districts about the situation at the border and Johnson's willingness to take up legislation that gives aid to foreigners under attack instead of securing our southern border. There is also anger at Johnson's apparent willingness to work with Joe Biden and the Democrats on budget issues .
So the threat to Johnson's speakership is real and is not confined to Greene and her far-right cohort.
Greene is banking on the home folks giving GOP members an earful on Johnson when they get home. So far, only two Republicans have signed on to her motion to vacate resolution: Kentucky's Thomas Massie and Paul Gosar of Arizona.
“The pressure is already building,” Massie said after the aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan votes on Saturday. “It’s going to be inevitable, especially now that he’s chosen his path with the Democrats. Like once you go there, it’s hard to go back.”
As for Johnson, he says he's not concerned about losing his job.
“I don’t walk around this building being worried about motion to vacate. I have to do my job. We did. I’ve done here what I’ve believed to be the right thing,” Johnson said. “You do the right thing and you let the chips fall where they may.”
One GOP member said the quiet part out loud in praising Johnson.
“I’m so proud of Mike Johnson for being brave and for allowing us to vote on some really important issues today. So I would hope that the Democrats will continue to do the right thing,” said centrist Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.). “We’ve seen him come a long way.”
That's the crux of the matter. With three GOP members already on board the motion to vacate, even if every Republican remaining voted to allow Johnson to keep his job, it wouldn't be enough. Johnson is going to need the help of House Democrats to survive. And as Massie points out, that reality carries its own perils.
Massie’s response to the Dems-save-the-speaker scenario was simple: Republicans, he predicted, won’t stand it and will join the anti-Johnson movement in protest.
“Every Democrat who walks across the aisle to try to save the Republican speaker is going to cause two or three more Republicans to join the effort because, at that point, you’re … ceding control of the House of Representatives to a contingent of Democrats,” Massie said.
Notably, Massie wouldn’t say how long he’d give Johnson to exit on his own terms before forcing a vote. And remember that Greene — who isn’t exactly known for her patience — could reject this plan entirely and press the matter on the floor at any time once MAGA-world outrage reaches critical mass. (Note that STEVE BANNON joined the dump-Johnson bandwagon last night.)
Democrats would have to vote en masse to save Johnson's job. It can't be just a few Democrats voting for Johnson. Massie is probably exaggerating a bit, but there's no doubt that Johnson is going to lose Republican votes if Democrats try to save his job.
The 800 lb gorilla in the room has yet to weigh in. Donald Trump put his arm around Johnson two weeks ago at Mar-a-Lago but has been a lot less vocal in recent days. Trump is no doubt raising his finger into the wind to gauge the sentiment on the Hill.
If Johnson can only survive with the help of Democrats, Trump will want nothing to do with him. That means that unless Greene can be convinced not to pull the trigger on her motion to vacate, Johnson will be gone by May 1.
