The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the U.S. is expecting an Iranian attack on Israeli territory sometime this weekend. Iran is expected to retaliate for Israel's strike on Iran's consulate in Damascus that killed a high-ranking general in the Revolutionary Guards and several others.
The rhetoric coming out of Iran has been alarming.
"When they attack the consulate, it is as if they have attacked our soil," Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a speech marking the end of Ramadan. "The evil regime made a mistake and must be punished and it shall be."
The reference to Iranian soil being attacked precipitated a meeting of Israel's defense and national security establishment as well as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
There was one more participant in that meeting: U.S. CENTCOM Commander, General Michael Erik Kurilla. It wouldn't be unusual for an American to sit in on Israeli deliberations when the probability that U.S. assets could also be targeted in a retaliatory strike by Iran.
But if Israel responds to any Iranian attack, it's probably not going to be a one-off. It's a distinct possibility that Israel would dust off long-planned attacks on Iran's nuclear infrastructure and strike while they have the opportunity.
If Iran hasn't already crossed the nuclear threshold, they are almost certainly capable of doing so. With their third-generation centrifuges and several hundred pounds of uranium enriched to 60%, it would take a matter of days to spin up weapons-grade U-235 for two or three crude nuclear devices.
So if Israel is going to attack Iran's nuclear infrastructure, this would be the time to do it.
Israel has bombed Iranian troops in Iraq and Syria before, but Iran has written these attacks off as a loss. The difference seems to be that this month's attack targeted a consulate. Attacking diplomatic facilities is considered a major red line in international law. Israeli army spokesman Daniel Hagari claimed that the Iranian consulate in Damascus was really a military base "disguised as a civilian building."
Although the bombing of the consulate came as a surprise to everyone outside the Israeli leadership, the Israeli-Iranian conflict has been brewing for a long time. Over the past few years, Khamenei has called Israel a cancerous tumor that needs to be excised, and Israeli leaders have in turn said that Iran is an octopus they will behead.
So under what circumstances would the U.S. go to war on Israel's side against Iran?
First and foremost, American interests would have to be under attack or under threat. Israel is fully capable of defending itself and carrying out a war against Iran. But if Israel's attack on Iran precipitates a wider war, there's a chance that the president would be compelled to join the fight.
In fact, Biden has allowed the decision to go to war to be taken out of his hands.
But Biden is now letting Israel and Iran make that decision for him. Even though he was blindsided by the consulate attack, he has implied that the United States will absorb some of those consequences. Iran, meanwhile, is being vague about exactly what those consequences will be.
The news site Amwaj.media speculated that Iran could attack the Golan Heights, a territory that Israel captured from Syria in a 1967 war. Although Israel and the United States consider it Israeli territory, other countries consider the Golan to be occupied Syrian land, which might tone down the international reaction to Iran's attack.
This is how World War I started. The Kaiser left the decision to go to war up to his weaker allies in Austria. He decided to give Vienna a free hand in the Balkans. Once Austria was committed in Serbia, the dominoes began to topple and Germany suddenly found itself at war with France and Great Britain.
Yes, I think Biden is dumb enough to get the U.S. involved in a war we have no business fighting. Whether it's accidental or a "wag the dog" scenario, the next week will be critical.
