Last Monday, Israel bombed the Iranian embassy in Damascus, killing the top commander of the Revolutionary Guard as well as a senior commander of the IRGC. That magnificent demonstration of military excellence and accurate intelligence will result in Iranian retaliation, perhaps as soon as next week, according to both American and Israeli officials.
The death of Mohammed Reza Zahedi, the Revolutionary Guard's top commander, is the most significant loss for the IRGC since Trump took out Gen. Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad in 2020. Also killed was senior commander Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi.
The two governments are looking to get out ahead of the expected attack and both militaries in the region are on high alert. But, realistically, it's a lot to expect any advance knowledge of where and whom the Iranians are going to strike.
Israel attacking Iran's embassy — considered the sovereign territory of Iran — has led some officials to consider whether Iran would risk a direct attack on Israeli territory. It's not likely but can't be ruled out. Iran has tried not to push the U.S. too far in this conflict. The proxy attacks on U.S. forces by Houthis and various Iranian-backed militias have ceased for the last two months after some devastating strikes on terrorist infrastructure.
A strike on Israel would turn the volume of the conflict up to 10. It's doubtful Iran wants that.
But other targets can't be ruled out. The U.S. base at al-Tanf in Syria has been a target in the past of Iranian-backed militias and could be again. Indeed, it's likely that Iran would use their proxies rather than attack Israel or the U.S. with Iranian military assets.
Reuters reports on one source familiar with the issue who said "Iran faced the conundrum of wanting to respond to deter further such Israeli strikes while avoiding an all-out war."
"They have faced this real dilemma that if they respond they could be courting a confrontation which they clearly don't want," he said. "They are trying to modulate their actions in a way that shows that they are responsive but not escalatory."
"If they don't respond in this case, it really would be a signal that their deterrence is a paper tiger," he added. He said that Iran might attack Israel proper, but is more likely to jit an embassy or symbol of Jewish culture abroad.
"I think Iran does not want a big Israel-Hezbollah war right now, so any response will not come in the form of a big Hezbollah action," said Elliot Abrams, Middle East expert at the Council on Foreign Relations. "They have many other ways to respond ... for example by trying to blow up an Israeli embassy," he added.
The US has warned Iran not to use the Israeli strike in Damascus as “a pretext to attack US personnel and facilities,” a State Department spokesperson told CNN Friday.
The warning was sent in response to a message from Iran, the spokesperson said. Iran’s message to the US blamed the US for the Damascus attack, a senior administration official said, though it was not clear what, if anything else, Iran conveyed to the US in that initial message.
The deputy chief of staff of the Iranian president, Mohammad Jamshidi, said on X Friday that “in a written message, the Islamic Republic of Iran warns US leadership not to get dragged in Netanyahu’s trap for US: Stay away so you won’t get hurt.” He added that in response, the US asked Iran not to target American facilities.
"Stay away so you won’t get hurt," is a taunt at Biden who sent a message to Tehran after the Damascus embassy was hit that basically pleaded with Iran not to hit us back because we didn't know in advance. We promise.
That the destiny of a great power is in the hands of this old fool beggars belief.
