The war is going badly for Ukraine, perhaps very badly. It's hard to plow through the endless spin and propaganda from both Ukraine and its supporters in the States, but it was already a foregone conclusion that without massive U.S. assistance — including, probably, American soldiers — Ukraine would be ground to dust by sheer attrition.
Russia's population is 143 million. Ukraine has 44 million people. Russia also already possessed a massive advantage in armor and air power. While Ukraine has fought valiantly and sacrificed much, the writing is on the wall.
Ukraine is running out of young men to fight. The average age of a Ukrainian soldier is 40. Without the $60 billion in aid being discussed in the U.S., Ukraine will run out of 155m shells, ammunition, missiles, and other war supplies in a matter of weeks. Even with the 50 billion euro boost from the EU, most of those supplies won't even be in the pipeline until late spring or summer.
The following scenario assumes that the GOP blocks Ukraine aid from being appropriated or that it's too little, too late. The Russian victory scenario does not include a triumphant march into Kyiv by Kremlin troops and tanks, according to The Atlantic. Instead, Ukraine's lack of ammunition would force it to request cease-fire talks. Ukraine would have very little leverage and would almost certainly be offered terrible terms.
The Russians would signal a willingness to deal only with a new Ukrainian regime, perhaps some “government of national salvation” that would exist solely to save whatever would be left of a rump Ukrainian state in the western part of the country while handing everything else over to the Kremlin.
Indeed, Moscow already occupies about 20% of Ukrainian territory in the East. Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia have already been "annexed" by Putin even though Russian troops do not occupy those regions entirely. But most of the population are Russian-speakers even if many of them don't want to be under the thumb of Vladimir Putin. It makes assimilation that much easier.
The Russians would then dictate more terms: The United States and NATO would be told to pound sand. Ukraine would have to destroy its weapons and convert its sizable army into a small and weak constabulary force. Areas under Russian control would become, by fiat, parts of Russia. The remaining thing called “Ukraine” would be a demilitarized puppet state, kept from integration of any kind with Europe; in a few years, an internal putsch or a Russian-led coup could produce a new government that would request final union with the Russian Federation. Soon, Ukraine would be part of a new Russian superstate, with Russian forces on NATO’s borders as “peacekeepers” or “border guards,” a ploy the Russians have used in Central Asia since the 1990s.
The biggest problem with this scenario is that it would depend on Vladimir Putin remaining in office for at least several years. At 71, Putin is already showing signs of slowing down. He's not going to live forever. There has been much speculation about his possible successor but not very loudly.
Indeed, there are two possibilities: Putin dies or is overthrown. If he dies, there are at least a dozen possible successors, including Putin's nearly invisible Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. He would become president in the event Putin died. How long he could hold the office is another question.
There's also the question of a coup. Although not likely, if Putin demonstrates weakness of body or mind, the sharks would smell blood in the water and look to shove Putin out of the way.
It's not likely. The shovers would probably end up dead after "jumping" off a tall building.
But time would not be on Putin's side, even if a close ally would succeed him. Kremlin politics is byzantine in complexity, and whoever emerges from the leadership scrum after Putin's death is going to have his hands full trying to remain in office.
Ukraine still has enough support in the United States Congress to be resupplied. But at some point, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy may think he has no other choice than to beg the American president for combat troops. Biden might accede to Zelensky's request, but Trump almost certainly wouldn't. Either way, that would mean an uncertain future for all of us.
