The Biden campaign is in deep, deep trouble. That's the assessment of political professionals across all regions of the country regardless of political party.
Biden is too old, his policies are too unpopular, and the misery he has brought to our southern border is an existential threat to his presidency.
Voters are pessimistic about the economy. Note to Biden: Pessimistic people don't vote for incumbents.
If he can't run on a successful economy, and if he can't cite any major accomplishments, what's he got? There's always abortion.
The way that Biden and the Democrats have framed the abortion issue is incredibly dishonest but marvelously effective. In 2022, it cost the GOP a larger House majority and perhaps a Senate seat in Georgia, although other factors played into that decision. But Republicans underestimated what a good campaign strategy on abortion could do to the race.
In 2022, Democrats were successful in pushing the idea that the Supreme Court "took away" the rights of women to an abortion. The court did no such thing, of course. It left the decision in the hands of the states, and the states acted.
But the Biden campaign team thinks it has hit upon a messaging strategy that will force the GOP on the defensive on abortion and make it difficult for Trump and the Republicans to sidestep or finesse the issue.
"Abortion and January 6 (as well as other examples of MAGA extremism) are going to be Biden’s biggest campaign talking points for 2024," says The Atlantic's Elaine Godfrey.
The Biden campaign is leaning on the argument, which the president has embraced for some time, that hard-line abortion policies infringe on Americans’ freedoms. Abortion “works as a campaign message—especially if they frame it as an issue of choice, of rights, of freedom, and literally say those words,” Elaine noted. The idea is not that some Americans must abandon their personal beliefs on abortion, Vice President Harris stated on The View last week, but that “the government should not be telling women what to do with their bodies.”
Biden's strategy on abortion is two-fold: first, it puts the Republicans clearly on the defensive. Second, it energizes an important part of Biden's base: college-educated single women.
Biden is not really the ideal frontman for abortion messaging. Not only is he old and male, but he's also a self-proclaimed Catholic. He was late to get on the pro-abortion bandwagon, waiting until his run for the presidency in 2007 to proclaim himself a born-again abortion supporter. He's leaving the heavy lifting on abortion with his female vice president, Kamala Harris.
Harris has embraced the job. She's currently on a multi-city tour of swing states, frightening women with the prospect of "The Handmaid's Tale" becoming a reality and women being treated as second-class citizens.
The press release on her Reproductive Freedoms Tour is self-explanatory.
"During the Vice President’s reproductive freedoms tour, she will host events that highlight the harm caused by these abortion bans while sharing stories of those who have been impacted. Vice President Harris will also hold extremists accountable for proposing a national abortion ban, call on Congress to restore the protections of Roe, and outline steps the Administration is taking to protect access to health care."
As with other campaign issues, Biden is presenting himself as better than the alternative when it comes to reproductive freedom. Elaine wrote in the most recent issue of The Atlantic that reproductive rights could be significantly imperiled during a second Trump presidency; although it’s not a given that Trump will capitulate to the requests of anti-abortion activists, it’s a real risk. And Biden’s White House has warned that Republicans in Congress are trying to ban abortion nationwide. Now emphasizing a right that a few years ago many Americans took for granted has become an opportunity for Biden to set himself apart from Trump.
Both parties used to believe that single-issue politics was a dead end. That adage is being tested in 2024. Biden is going to try and ride the abortion issue to the finish line in November. Whether the strategy works or not remains to be seen.
