While the 2024 presidential election is still a year away, the Republican primaries are almost upon us. The Iowa caucuses are on January 15, and the following Tuesday, New Hampshire will hold its first-in-the-nation primary.
That's not much time for former governor and UN ambassador Nike Haley to make up 50 points or more in the polls.
Obviously, that's not going to happen. And realistically, Haley's chances depend on limiting Trump's victories in the early primary states and then winning some later contests in South Carolina and Michigan in late February.
“Nikki Haley is certainly locking up a lot of the Never Trumpers,” said Matthew Bartlett, a Republican operative who has worked on several presidential campaigns and is unaffiliated this cycle. “She also has real room to grow.”
The problem for Haley is that there aren't a lot of "Never Trumpers" to lock up. There never were.
But since perception is the coin of the realm in politics, Haley's only shot is to alter the perception of Trump as an inevitable winner. She can do that by starting to cement the support of the anti-Trump minority.
“Never Trumpers and ‘Anybody but Trumpers’ are really consolidating around her from a financial standpoint,” said Gross, who was chief of staff to former Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad.
There's a lot of money in the anti-Trump donor pool. There's certainly enough to run a credible campaign into the Spring.
Haley is benefiting from this recent surge of support. She is now polling ahead of DeSantis in New Hampshire, the first primary state, and in her home state of South Carolina. One recent survey showed her running neck and neck with DeSantis in Iowa.
“I was kind of vacillating between three or four different people,” said Carmine Boal, a former state lawmaker from Iowa who said she’s supporting Haley because she thinks she is the most likely candidate to topple Trump. “The only thing I knew was I would not support him in the caucuses. … I think [Haley] will do well with the independents, particularly suburban women. And everyone knows elections are won or lost by the independent vote.”
Alyssa Farah Griffin, a co-host of “The View” and former Trump White House aide who has been critical of the former president’s candidacy, described Haley on Tuesday as “hands down the best option to beat Trump.”
DeSantis is still running second in Iowa, but Haley has surpassed him in New Hampshire. She trails Trump by 22 points in the Granite State, which is a lot better than the 50+ point lead Trump enjoys nationally.
“I do think that most people seem aware that her path is an extraordinarily narrow one,” Sarah Longwell, an anti-Trump Republican said. “I mean, extraordinarily narrow.”
This is true because Haley herself has been hot and cold about Trump in the last eight years.
As governor of South Carolina in 2016, Haley spoke out against Trump becoming the Republican nominee, putting her endorsement behind Sen. Marco Rubio. Then, after Trump’s election, her appointment as United Nations ambassador changed her relationship with the now-former president, and she included glowing remarks about Trump in a book she published after leaving the post in 2018.
But Haley in the aftermath of the 2021 riot at the Capitol oscillated between condemning Trump for decisions he made in the White House, to later declaring that conservatives “need him in the Republican Party.”
She's not MAGA. She's not really a moderate. She tries to appeal to the right wing, but its members don't trust her. And she can't make up her mind just how "anti-Trump" she is.
Her claim to fame at the moment is that she's the darling of the Never Trumpers and will receive gobs of cash for that. That's not going to be enough unless Trump crashes and burns. Even then, Republicans would vote for him.
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