Hamas has agreed "in principle to the release of about 50 Israeli women and children, pending the approval of the Israeli government."
In exchange for the Israelis, Hamas has agreed to a three-to-five-day pause in the fighting, increased aid to Gaza, and the release of a number of women and children held in Israeli prisons.
The hostage negotiations are made more complicated because Israel and Hamas refuse to talk directly to one another and the government of Qatar is acting as a go-between. Communications with battlefield units of Hamas are spotty and sometimes, it takes hours for a response to an Israeli query.
The Israeli war cabinet is meeting this morning (U.S. time) to discuss the proposal, and there's some indication that the deal will be rejected. Not enough hostages, too long a pause in the fighting.
The hope is that agreement on a deal for the release of at least some of the captives could lead to further talks on freeing the remainder of those held in Gaza. Hamas has indicated previously that it will keep Israeli military hostages, estimated to number several dozen, apparently for use in separate exchanges for Palestinian militants held in Israeli prisons.
The office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other members of his war cabinet refused to comment Wednesday on a potential hostage deal.
Speaking at a military post in southern Israel, Netanyahu said, “There’s no place in Gaza we won’t reach. There’s no hiding, no shelter, no refuge for Hamas murderers. ... The hostages will be released and Hamas will be destroyed.”
As usual, the UN isn't much help. The blowhards on the Security Council approved a resolution Wednesday calling for “urgent and extended humanitarian pauses” and added as an afterthought, the release of all the hostages. The U.S., Great Britain, and Russia courteously abstained.
Another complication is that other terror groups are holding several dozen hostages and Hamas claims that it doesn't know where they are. That's possible, but Hamas knows who these groups are and knows who to talk to in order to get the hostages released.
Hamas has told negotiators that it does not have control, or know the location, of all of the hostages — some of whom it says are being held by Palestinian Islamic Jihad, another militant group inside Gaza. In his press conference, Biden said there were “somewhere between 50 to 100 hostages,” a mention that a senior administration official said referred to “a pool of hostages that we know Hamas holds and are part of the discussions.” The official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity about the ongoing negotiations, said that it was “important to remember that not all hostages are being held by Hamas.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in a tough spot. The hostages have already caused him immense political trouble, and if he refuses the exchange he's going to have a furious civilian population to deal with. In Israel, the fate of the hostages has surpassed the war as the most important issue facing the government.
Netanyahu has shown in the past that he's willing to defy public opinion to achieve ends he believes to be vital for Israel. It won't make the hostage families happy and could result in some political blowback if he refuses the hostage deal. But Netanyahu and many in Israel see this war as an existential moment for Israel where anything is justified, whether the people are with him or not.
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