House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is currently engaged in trying to figure out a potential endgame for how he will approach the looming government shutdown deadline of Nov. 17.
The way he sees it, he has three options. The first option would be a "clean" budget bill that would extend government funding into January or perhaps April. The second option would pair a border security measure with government funding. The third option would be a so-called "ladder" bill that would extend government funding for different agencies for different periods of time.
The last two ideas are dead on arrival in the Senate. But Johnson may wish to score some political points by placing the onus of a shutdown squarely on the Democrats who would reject a deal based on their notion that the border is secure enough and doesn't need billions of dollars more in funding.
"I would propose a measure that expires on January 15 or April 15," he wrote in his letter to colleagues. This would be another Continuing Resolution that would kick the budget can down the road into the new year.
Some of the more conservative members are opposed to another CR and want a vote that would include a comprehensive immigration bill.
One approach being discussed would try to pair government funding with GOP wins on the issue of immigration. H.R. 2 is a far-reaching GOP immigration bill that would do things like reinstate the controversial Trump-era "Remain in Mexico" policies. It’s a bill that some in Johnson's caucus want to attach as a condition of keeping the government open through the holidays.
But H.R. 2 has already been ruled out by the Democratic-controlled Senate. Immigration is currently the topic of bipartisan Senate negotiations, with even some Republicans involved in that effort likely to reject the idea of simply accepting a House bill while they are in the middle of a search for bipartisan compromise.
Johnson could also demand other policy concessions — such as cutting federal spending in return for a two-month stopgap — but that is almost certain to be rejected by Majority Leader Chuck Schumer in the Senate.
The "laddered CR" would be a pain in the neck to manage, and the GOP caucus would probably not agree to it. So that leaves a "leveraged" CR and a "clean" CR. Neither one would be palatable to the entire caucus. And the probability that the hard right would look to block any short-term budget deal makes Johnson probably wish he hadn't thrown his hat into the ring for speaker.
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