History and probabilities are on the Republicans’ side this election day. However, we should still prepare ourselves for some nasty surprises over the next few days as the votes are counted.
Forty-one million mail-in and absentee ballots will have to be counted after the polls close. You might think this proves Democratic shenanigans except for the fact that it’s largely been Republicans who have blocked the counting of mail-in ballots before election day in the first place. It’s also a fact that Republicans have discouraged their supporters from voting early or using the mail to send their votes. This has resulted in a lead of 50%-39% by Democrats in early ballots sent through the mail. That translates into a margin of about 4.4 million votes.
The reasons why Republicans decided to urge their supporters not to vote early and why they chose to pass laws preventing election officials from getting a head-start on counting votes don’t matter. The practical effect is that the vote will be delayed. And the sense that there is fraud occurring will grow.
As far as the results, most prognosticators believe the GOP has sewn up a House majority. But the size of that majority is predicted to be anywhere from single digits to 40 seats. There are so many close races that firming up a number becomes a guessing game. The Cook Political Report pegs the GOP majority on the House post-election at 24 seats. That may be low-balling it a bit, but as I’ve tried to point out in recent weeks, the number of Democratic seats that could conceivably flip is far less than it was in 2010 thanks to redistricting. The Republicans didn’t get quite as much out of redrawing district lines as they believed going into the process and they thought they might.
But on the plus side, history has shown that in the first midterm election for a new president, close races decided in the last few days before the election break hard for the party out of power. That could mean that races that look tied or are very close in the polls might see the Republican win comfortably.
This is especially true in the Senate. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and Herschel Walker in Georgia are just two examples of GOP candidates who may end up winning more or less decisively — three-to-five points — after polls show them only narrowly ahead.
But it’s the Senate that could defy all expectations and come down to one or two races. It’s possible that Georgia’s Senate race may go to a run-off because neither candidate reaches 50%. And chances of Republican pickups in Nevada and New Hampshire have faded as Democratic incumbent senators Catherine Cortez Masto and Maggie Hassan have made late charges and it appears they will hang on to win.
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball has consistently given Republicans the edge in close races and gives the GOP a one-seat advantage at the end of the counting process.
Basically, we just think the environment is not conducive to Democrats holding the Senate. Could they? Absolutely. But we think the Republicans, despite this cycle’s challenges, could and should win the Senate. So we are leaning enough seats to them to get them to 51, their magic number for control (it is 50 for the Democrats because of the vice president’s tiebreaking power).
We feel zero temptation to pick against Republicans in any of the Leans Republican races where we have favored them the whole cycle (North Carolina, Ohio, and Wisconsin). Likewise, we cannot justify picking against Democrats in New Hampshire or a couple of reach Republican targets, Colorado or Washington.
Given that the GOP was defending 21 seats to the Democrats’ 14, this would be about the best outcome possible considering that five of the states held by Republicans were won by Joe Biden in 2020.
If it’s going to be a Republican night, we might see Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona all fall to the GOP, giving them a 54-seat majority. That’s the best-case scenario for Republicans, and, while unlikely, it is still within the realm of the possible.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member