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Is the Iran Deal a Go or a No Go?

AP Photo/Vahid Salemi

There seems to be some confusion among negotiators about whether a new nuclear deal with Iran is imminent or not.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said Saturday, “Now we are very close to an agreement and I hope it will be possible,” Reuters reported.

But U.S. Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley said on Sunday he was not confident that a deal to hamstring Iran’s nuclear program was in the offing.

The real-world consequence of this confusion is that it raises tensions in the Middle East which, considering the sensitivity of fuel prices, could further drive up the price of oil.

Adding to the confusion, Iran is saying a deal is “imminent” — as long as America is willing to surrender.

Reuters:

But there are still outstanding issues. Kharrazi said in order for the deal to be revived Washington must remove the foreign terrorist organisation (FTO) designation against Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The IRGC, created by the Islamic Republic’s late founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, is more than just a military force and has enormous political clout. It was placed under sanctions in 2017 and put on the FTO list in April of 2019.

“IRGC is a national army and a national army being listed as a terrorist group certainly is not acceptable,” said Kharrazi.

Malley said regardless of what happens, many sanctions on the IRGC will remain.

Related: Iran Nuclear Deal Hinges on Taking Terrorist Organization Off the List of Terrorist Organizations

Tehran wants an ironclad guarantee that the United States won’t withdraw from any future agreement. In effect, they want a free rein to run wild in the Middle East and not be concerned about sanctions. Israel recognizes this and wants sanctions on the Revolutionary Guards to remain.

Israel and the United States will continue to cooperate in preventing a nuclear-armed Iran, Israel’s foreign minister said on Sunday.

“We have disagreements about a nuclear agreement and its consequences, but open and honest dialogue is part of the strength of our friendship,” Yair Lapid said in Jerusalem during a joint press conference with visiting U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

Blinken said a return to the 2015 deal was the best way to contain Iran’s nuclear programme.

But whether or not that happens, “our commitment to the core principle of Iran never acquiring a nuclear weapon is unwavering”, he said.

Blinken is a fool. The nuclear genie has already escaped, and it can never be put back in the bottle. If he and his boss are serious about keeping Iran from building a weapon, the only recourse for them — if they haven’t done so already — is to eliminate the regime that would use that weapon to threaten the peace of the Middle East and the existence of a key ally in Israel.

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