Belmont Club


Election results are being tabulated at Real Clear Politics

Open thread.

For most of readers divining the election results has been an exercise in judgment under imperfect information. We all want to know the answer to a simple question:  is Obama or Romney leading on the ground.  To answer this a number of indicators were available to all, including polls, prediction markets and punditry. You would think that would be enough to put the issue to rest.

It has not.

In that regard we can appreciate how difficult command is. Everything is clear in hindsight but on the day of decision we forget that nothing was clear. Admirals Spruance and Fletcher were essentially trying to do the same thing all of us have attempted all night at Midway. They wanted the answer a simple question. Where was the Japanese Fleet? And they had less information that we do.  Yet on the basis of a few terse and often incomplete messages, they had to hazard not only their air wings, but their ships and their very lives.

The strain must have been tremendous.

Things are are much wore when two or more contradictory piece of information present themselves. Which is true? And can one afford to wait for more information? Or does you go on a hunch?  Does one act on what is available because time is always running out and there is the another side — always the other side — who may by readying a throw of the dice.

At this early stage, neither Romney nor Obama know if their campaign airwings have succeeded. Have they won. They can guess but do not know.  They are pacing in their headquarters, as we are perhaps drumming our fingers on the keyboard.

The die is cast and the deeds are done. Now we await news of results.

Here’s a link to Florida’s Department of State website.

The Three Conjectures at Amazon Kindle for $1.99
Storming the Castle at Amazon Kindle for $3.99
No Way In at Amazon Kindle $8.95, print $9.99

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