It's a tough time for those awaiting the End of History, "a state in which human life continues indefinitely into the future without any further major changes in society, system of governance, or economics." The safe harbor we sought has eluded us; we seem to be reliving the bad old days, when good and evil fought for the dominion of the world. One bad sign, as Mike Studeman in War on the Rocks observes, is that China is embarked in absolute terms on perhaps the greatest military buildup the world has ever seen. "Despite ... China’s recent economic setbacks and faux conciliations ... Xi is militarizing Chinese society and steeling his country for a potential high-intensity war." His theory is the buildup is happening for a reason.
The People’s Liberation Army has since built vast underground complexes, a modernized and proliferated space layer, thick aircraft and air defenses, and the world’s largest navy. China also created a Strategic Support Force, which integrates space, electronic warfare, and cyber capabilities. And it boasts the most active and sophisticated ballistic missile force in the world.
From all across the horizon the dark clouds are rising. It's like being in the 1930s according to Rishi Sunak, the British PM. Speaking a few days ago in Warsaw he said, "we have entered a period of history in which competition between countries has sharpened profoundly. An axis of authoritarian states with different values to ours like Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China are increasingly assertive ... causing more instability, more quickly, in more places at once. And they’re increasingly acting together making common cause in an attempt to reshape the world order. Now I know there are some people who will think these are faraway problems. But they are not." The British PM went on to deliver a subliminal message.
Now, we must not overstate the danger. We’re not on the brink of war. And nor do we seek it. And people should feel reassured… But in a world that’s the most dangerous it’s been since the end of the Cold War we cannot – and must not - be complacent.
As Churchill said, in 1934: “To urge the preparation of defence is not to assert the imminence of war. On the contrary, if war were imminent preparations for defence would be too late.” I believe we must do more to defend our country, our interests, and our values. So today, I’m announcing the biggest strengthening of our national defence for a generation ...
We welcome the news over the weekend that the US Congress agreed a new package of aid for Ukraine ... All across Europe countries like Poland, Germany, Norway and the Baltic nations are stepping up to take greater responsibility for our own security. And I’m confident that whether in months or years others will follow, too.
Despite Sunak's unconvincing attempts at reassurance, his invocation of Churchill, the explicit comparison to 1934 delivered in the setting of Warsaw -- where WW2 began -- are all too obvious clues that he is warning us to expect trouble. The End of History has ended. The clock has started again. Major changes to civilization are not over, as some had hoped at the fall of the Berlin Wall. Indeed they have probably only just begun.
On the other side of the great divide, Russia and China are circling their wagons. What they intend is still unclear. At the minimum that alliance based in the heart of the Eurasian continent may wish to carve out their separate sphere in the global world. At the maximum they may wish to rule all of it. If the former, then we may settle into a cold war, an uneasy truce lasting for decades. But if the latter, a true global conflict may rapidly arise. Rationally a cold war is more likely, since neither side has the resources to completely conquer the other side. But if the recent past teaches us anything (Putin's invasion of Ukraine war and Hamas' Oct 7 attack on Israel) it is that irrational things, even madness, occurs. Reason doesn't always prevail and unforeseen, even random occurences can dominate the game. Irrationality means that we can "slide" into disaster.
There are flashpoints embedded in geography. Russia's border with the Baltics and its proximity to Poland are one example of this type. But there are also flashpoints in the mind. China has dropped references to the "peaceful reunification with Taiwan," indicating it is moving if not physically then mentally closer to catastrophe. Perhaps the most dangerous flashpoints of all are those embedded in culture. Malcom Kyeyune argues that the greatest danger of all is the enemy belief that while we will posture, invoke the name of Churchill even, it's a dead cert the West will not fight.
our leaders are full of loud-mouthed passion, warning that the days of peace are over and that we now need to prepare for total, generational war. On the other, it’s beyond obvious that nobody cares. Across Europe and America, politicians now openly exhort their populations to feel righteous patriotism and to answer the call of duty, but all seem to accomplish exactly nothing: our militaries are shrinking due to a lack of recruits, polling shows a massive disinterest in fighting for King and Country, the young in particular remain completely unmoved. Even in embattled Ukraine, young men are choosing to dodge the draft and go clubbing instead.
And so, calculating we are degenerate, they will push until the whole edifice completely goes over the edge. I am not sure this is completely right. Once war is big enough there will be nowhere to run. The phones will stop working, the lights will flicker and the benefits will cease. Humanity will revert to its atavistic state and struggle to survive. We don't know what barbarities we will stoop to then. No one does. What I think is true is that the West is less prone to act until we come to the last pinch of the vise. I am sure the Woke will fight to survive but less sure they will fight to prevent that from happening. It is before we come to the last pinch of the vise that the problem lies. The Woke and everyone else will fight to survive then but may be less willing to sacrifice in order prevent that from happening in the first place. We will be "righteous" when it no longer matters and degenerate, foolish and ambitious in the meantime.
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