Moroccans went to the polls on September 7 to elect a new Parliament. Only the real news is, they didn’t. Only 37% of registered voters cast a ballot, a record low turnout.
Instead of a clear victory by the Islamist-rooted Justice and Development Party (PJD) as most observers had expected, the vote was divided among six large parties and a number of smaller ones, leading to a Parliament in which no party will have a clear mandate.
Secular-minded Moroccans had been bracing themselves for a PJD victory, but that didn’t happen. An American-sponsored poll leaked to journalists in early 2006 suggested they might win over 40% of the vote. The PJD has always been an Islamist party, but it has moved to the center in recent years. It ran on a platform of government reform, jobs, education, housing and public health. When the votes were counted, it found itself in second place, with 47 seats out of 325 total seats in Parliament. This was particularly disappointing because in 2002, they won 42 seats despite running in just over half the electoral districts. This year they competed in all districts, but only managed to pick up five more seats.
Instead, Istiqlal, Morocco’s oldest party, emerged in first place. This surprised nearly everyone, but it can be explained in part by the higher turnout in rural areas. Istiqlal, whose name means Independence, has been around since the fight against French colonizer in the 1950s. They tend to do well in tradition-minded rural areas, and their patronage network has been distributing jobs and handouts for half a century now. The fact that rural turnout was 43%, versus 34% in the cities, no doubt worked to their advantage. Even so, their victory was far from impressive. They managed to win only 52 seats in Parliament, less than 1/6 of the total.
PJD deputy leader Lahcen Daoudi explained his party’s unexpectedly weak performance by charging, “Dirty money has been flowing into the voting system. We have the proof and we will challenge this.” But international observers seemed to think the elections were fair, despite the usual caveats about scattered irregularities. Indeed, most Moroccans seemed convinced that these elections were the cleanest they could remember. In the past, rumors of vote buying and ballot box stuffing were widespread. In a nation where the majority is illiterate and unsure of their rights, some local manipulation is inevitable, but state-level abuse seems to be a thing of the past. This may be one reason for the low voter turnout, because fewer fake votes were added to the tally. .
Despite these reasons for optimism, the overwhelming feeling about the elections was indifference, even relief they were over.
Morocco is an absolute monarchy, and the role of Parliament is largely symbolic. As Al Jazeera put it, “Whatever the outcome, real power will remain with the king, who is executive head of state, military chief and religious leader.” The king appoints the prime minister and other key ministers. The outgoing prime minister, Driss Jettou, is not a member of Parliament or any party. The popular impression is that politicians run for office because they enjoy the perks of power, and to get access to public funds they can funnel into their own pockets. Aside from enriching themselves, they do little but wait for the king’s orders, because all major decisions in Morocco come from him.
King Mohammed VI himself underlined this point in a recent speech to the nation . He warned that political parties must not use the elections to “indulge in useless and untimely competition regarding the strategic choices of the nation,” because “ensuring the continuation of those values falls to Us, whatever the circumstances.” Almost the same breath, he called on Moroccans to “do away with the erroneous, nihilistic and deceptive idea” that elections and political parties serve no purpose.
When Ahmed Reza Benchemsi, editor of the popular magazine Nichane, wrote an editorial attacking this contradiction, all copies of the magazine were seized and Benchemsi himself was hauled in for interrogation. He was charged with “disrespect of the king,” which has a penalty of up to five years in prison.
Benchemsi’s point is one that political forces on both the left and the right have been making with increasing frequency. So long as the Constitution gives the king authority over all three branches of government, as well as the military and the religious community, then it doesn’t matter which party has the most seats in Parliament. Since Mohammed VI took the throne in 1999 there has been talk of a “democratic transition,” but the only true transition would be to give power to the elected government at the expense of the king. Without constitutional reform this will never happen.
One big election winner was Fouad Ali El Himma, a former classmate of the king at the Royal College who has emerged as his right-hand man . Over the last two years, he has planned the 2007 elections as the king’s delegate to the Interior Ministry. Last month, in a surprise announcement, he resigned to run for office himself. Of course he won his race by a wide margin, but more importantly, his plan for the election has paid off.
Just a few months ago, there was talk of an “Islamist tidal wave” that would sweep the PJD into power. Many Moroccans, particularly the young and better educated, liked the PJD not because of its Islamist roots, but because they saw it as Morocco’s only party uncorrupted by power. The PJD has never served in the national government or been close to the Palace, and it has kept its hands clean where it has governed at the local level. Many people, even those who are secular minded, saw the PJD as the best hope for change.
But something happened on the way to the election. Maybe it was the king’s reminder that the “strategic choices of the nation” were his alone. Maybe, in its eagerness to show it could be a team player, the PJD defused the enthusiasm of those who were looking for an aggressive champion of reform. Or maybe El Himma’s subtle, technocratic gaming of the system worked as planned.
No votes were stolen because they didn’t need to be. Instead, seats in Parliament were assigned using a system El Himma designed to make it nearly impossible for any party, no matter how strong, to capture all the seats in a given district. This system, the opposite of winner-take-all, has resulted in a Parliament divided among six large parties and many smaller ones, along with a number of independents including El Himma himself.
From the point of view of El Himma and the Palace, Friday’s elections succeeded brilliantly. Although they were marred by low turnout, Morocco has shown the world they could be free and fair. Even better, they leave the monarchy in an even stronger position than before. The new Parliament will be more pliable than the last one. The PJD “threat” has been contained for five more years.
A coalition of at least four parties will be needed to govern, and all of the likely partners are friendly with the Palace. Protocol might require the king to make a different choice, but no one should be surprised ( http://www.eatbees.com/blog/2007/08/08/winner-is/ ) if El Himma becomes the next prime minister.
Marcel Côté is a writer and photographer based in Asheville, North Carolina who lived from 2003-2006 in Morocco and maintains close ties there. He writes about Moroccan politics and culture and issues of global democracy at Eatbees Blog.
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