Ohio has, in the past, been the proverbial swing state. In the last 12 presidential elections, it has gone for the Republican candidate seven times and voted with the overall winning candidate in all but one election—2020. That year, Donald Trump beat Joe Biden by eight points in the Buckeye State.
The last time Ohio elected a Democrat governor was in 2006, and it has become increasingly red in recent years. In fact, Republicans have held a state government triplex since the 2011 red wave, with majorities in both chambers of the state legislature and holding the offices of governor, attorney general, and secretary of state.
Presidential race
According to the RealClearPolitics Average, Trump leads Kamala Harris by a solid 6.9 points in Ohio. However, Decision Desk HQ and Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race as "Likely R" rather than "Solid R." The Cook Political Report rates it as "Solid R."
If Ohio is such a red state, why is there any uncertainty about the election outcome? One word: abortion. Democrats have been running hard on abortion, lying about it in endless ads, telling women that if Trump wins, women with miscarriages will die. Last year, Ohio voters approved a ballot measure that enshrined abortion in the state constitution, 57-43, in large part based on the left's deceptive fear-mongering.
The other unknowns:
- How many women will vote for Kamala Harris solely because she is a woman or because of her race?
- How many pro-life voters will stay home because of Trump's softened stance on abortion?
- How many Democrats and independents will vote for Trump because of his vow not to push for an abortion ban?
Thus far, 2.5 million Ohioans have voted either in person or by mail—700,000 Republicans to the Democrats' 400,000. More than a million early voters are unaffiliated.
Trump seems confident he'll win Ohio. Although he's running some campaign ads, he has not appeared in person since March. Instead, he's focusing his attention on neighboring states Pennsylvania and Michigan.
In 2020, turnout was 73.99%—the highest percentage since 1992 (77.14%), when Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush were on the ballot. Remember that in 2020, we were in the midst of a pandemic, so don't be surprised if we see record turnout on Tuesday.
Senate race
Incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is facing off against businessman Bernie Moreno, who is running for his first political office. The race could ultimately decide the balance of the Senate.
The most recent poll (Trafalgar) has Brown up by a single point. The RealClear Politics Average also has Brown up by a point—well within the margin of error.
Moreno, a businessman endorsed by Trump in the primary, has slowly but consistently closed the gap. All the polls since September are within the margin of error. However, Trump's large leading heading into Election Day could bode well for Moreno.
Brown has been in the Senate since 2007—when Ohio was a true swing state. He won his Senate seat by trouncing then-incumbent Republican senator and current Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine, 48-56.
In 2012, he beat then-Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel by six points. He beat Republican Congressman Jim Renacci in 2018 (46-53).
I wrote last week:
Like Joe Biden, Brown portrays himself as a blue-collar guy. He literally wears shirts with blue collars everywhere he goes (I dare you to find a picture of him without one). He claims to be a man of the people, and Ohioans keep falling for the schtick. In reality, he espouses radical positions on issues like transgenders in girls' locker rooms and on their sports teams, and abortion on demand through all nine months of pregnancy.
Brown has held elected office since 1975, when Gerald Ford was president and I was in fifth grade. He's the swampiest of the swamp creatures in Washington, but the disinformation campaign to portray him as a moderate has been wildly successful over the years. To his credit, he excels at retail politics. One independent voter I know told me he likes Brown because he showed up in his neighborhood after a storm to help clean up fallen trees. That's the kind of thing that builds a loyal following among non-ideological voters.
Republicans this cycle, including Moreno's campaign and the Senate Leadership Fund, have poured millions of dollars into ad campaigns exposing the real Sherrod Brown.
Moreno's campaign and a super PAC supporting him have done a great job of redefining Brown as a radical who favors open borders, amnesty for illegal aliens, and men pretending to be women destroying women's sports. On Saturday, Moreno's campaign dropped a new ad featuring Trump's seal of approval, but curiously, Trump has not appeared in Ohio with Moreno in the lead-up to the election.
Brown's campaign claims he's a border hawk who will work with both parties to support "workers." He has attempted to paint Moreno as a dishonest car dealer who would monitor women's menstrual cycles. Will Ohio voters—especially those in the middle who are not already locked in—fall for the deception? That's the big question going into Election Day. Check back for live election results below.
Stay tuned to PJ Media for essential coverage of the races in Ohio and around the nation. Join us at 7 p.m. on Election Day for our lively, informative, and hilarious live blog. We always look forward to hanging out with you in the comments section. We may even feature one of your comments in the live blog!
Sign up here to become a new VIP member and get 60% off when you use the promo code FIGHT. If you're already a member (thank you!), you can upgrade to our new Platinum program here. We've got tons of great movies in the TownhallTV vault, including Dinesh D'Souza's new film, "Vindicated." Also, our Platinum members can now message our writers directly, so please drop me a line and say hello when you get a minute. I'd love to hear from you. Also, check out the new t-shirts that just dropped in our merch store. Get yours HERE. If you sign up for Platinum today, you'll get a $25 credit to use in our store. Win-win!
Join the conversation as a VIP Member