Pentagon sources are telling the media that more than 100 classified documents including Ukrainian war plans have been leaked to several social media sites. The leak first came to light on Thursday when the New York Times published details of Ukraine’s military buildup and plans for an offensive.
The Pentagon says some of the figures in the documents appear to have been altered, overstating American estimates of Ukrainian war dead and understating estimates of Russian troops killed. Experts say this is common practice when using documents to spread disinformation.
Then on Friday, dozens of more documents were also posted to the social media site 4chan.
The documents on Ukraine’s military appear as photographs of charts of anticipated weapons deliveries, troop and battalion strengths, and other plans. Pentagon officials acknowledge that they are legitimate Defense Department documents, but the copies appear to have been altered in certain parts from their original format. The modified versions, for example, overstate American estimates of Ukrainian war dead and underestimate estimates of Russian troops killed.
On Friday, Ukrainian officials and pro-war Russian bloggers suggested the leak was part of a disinformation effort by the other side, timed to influence Ukraine’s possible spring offensive to reclaim territory in the east and the south of the country.
The notion that this is a Western disinformation campaign designed to mislead Russia was being advanced by Russian war bloggers. It’s also possible that Moscow leaked the documents to try and drive a wedge between Ukraine and the U.S.
Kyle Walter, the head of research at Logically, a British firm that tracks disinformation, says the Russians on the social media site Telegram were calling the original, apparently unaltered photo showing Russian and Ukrainian casualties a “Western influence” operation.
“They think the actual unedited photo where it shows high Russian loss numbers and relatively low Ukrainian loss numbers is an attempt to instill poor morale in Russia and Russian forces,” Mr. Walter said.
“There are a lot of examples of leaked documents being used in propaganda campaigns and specifically in terms of disinformation,” Mr. Walter added.
The Ukraine war, Mr. Walter said, has had more document leaks than other conflicts, in part because of the role that open-source intelligence and declassified intelligence have played in the war.
“There’s definitely been an uptick, it’s happening more often, but that’s more indicative of just the environment we’re in rather than it being the tactic specific to the Ukraine war,” Mr. Walter said.
Aside from the apparent editing of some of the document’s contents, the Pentagon is saying they are authentic. One surprise was the sad state of Ukrainian air defense. It was found in a document marked “Secret/NoForn,” meaning it was not meant to be shared with foreign countries.
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Mick Mulroy, a former senior Pentagon official, told the Times, “As many of these were pictures of documents, it appears that it was a deliberate leak done by someone that wished to damage the Ukraine, U.S., and NATO efforts,” he said. If that’s the case, Russian intelligence becomes a prime suspect, which may or may not have received help from American traitors.
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