Donald Trump had been slowly increasing his national primary lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis since the fall — a trend that continues now that the former president is under threat of indictment.
The spread between the former president and the Florida governor is now 11% in the Morning Consult poll. It’s 41-27% in the Monmouth Poll and 46-32% in the Quinnipiac Poll.
Despite unprecedented negative coverage by the national media and the hype surrounding “the first president ever, ever, evah, to be indicted,” Trump has grown his lead over DeSantis since the beginning of the year.
2024 Republican primary polling trends by Morning Consult
Jan 2:
• Trump — 45% (+11)
• DeSantis — 34%Feb 25:
• Trump — 48% (+18)
• DeSantis — 30%March 14:
• Trump — 52% (+24)
• DeSantis — 28%MARCH 19:
• Trump — 54% (+28)
• DeSantis — 26% pic.twitter.com/wh35GXRYII— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) March 21, 2023
In the Morning Consult polls, Trump’s margin over DeSantis has increased from 11% on Jan. 2 to 28 points on March 19.
Other findings from the poll:
- DeSantis is the second choice of 46% of potential GOP primary voters who are backing Trump, while 43% of the Florida governor’s supporters view Trump as their top backup option.
- Haley is the second choice of 6% of Trump supporters and 15% of DeSantis supporters. Pence is the second choice of 17% of Trump supporters and 16% of DeSantis backers.
- Far more of Trump’s backers (17%) than DeSantis’ supporters (5%) are uncertain about where their loyalties would fall if their first choice weren’t in the race.
As far as a head-to-head match-up with Biden, both candidates would run equally well against the incumbent.
- A hypothetical head-to-head matchup shows Biden with a 3-percentage-point lead over Trump and a 2-point lead over DeSantis. Since early this month, DeSantis has held no advantage over Biden, a contrast with prior surveys conducted since December that would from time to time give the Floridian a modest lead.
- These numbers may be best considered as a test of electability — a key issue in party primaries that carries all the more significance this time around given concerns about Trump’s baggage and whether the GOP should work to maintain Trump’s coalition or to try to expand its base.
Trump also leads in a hypothetical Florida primary.
Trump also holds a narrow lead over DeSantis in a hypothetical Florida GOP primary, a poll from Emerson College shows. Trump received 47 percent of the vote compared to 44 percent for DeSantis, according to the poll. The same poll found that, in a general election matchup, President Joe Biden is tied with Trump at 44 percent, while DeSantis has a slight edge over the president, leading him 46-43 among Florida voters.
One advantage Trump has that DeSantis may find impossible to overcome is the loyalty and enthusiasm of voters who identify with the MAGA movement.
Some of Trump’s broadest support comes from Republicans who identify as strong supporters of MAGA – the Make America Great Again movement within the party. These voters – who represent nearly 4 in 10 Republicans nationally – overwhelming prefer Trump (73%) to DeSantis (25%) in a head-to-head contest. DeSantis is preferred by those who only support MAGA somewhat (61% to 32% for Trump), as well as Republicans who do not consider themselves to be MAGA supporters at all (57% to 31%). Overall, 73% of GOP voters say the MAGA movement has been good for the party. Just 20% say it has been bad. Even among Republicans who are not MAGA supporters themselves, 34% say the movement has been good for the party.
That’s a tough hill to climb for the Florida governor and as long as Trump is in the race, he’s not likely to overcome that advantage by the former president.
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